Mansfield Town 3-2 Hartlepool – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Mansfield Town and Hartlepool meet at One Call Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 23. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Mansfield Town (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 League Two fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Mansfield Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Mansfield Town's home record at One Call Stadium: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League Two appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Hartlepool's overall League Two record this term: 3W 1D 6L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Hartlepool, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Hartlepool's away record: 1W 1D 8L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward Mansfield Town. A 0.90 PPG lead over Hartlepool (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading
Mansfield Town half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Hartlepool half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 62% versus Hartlepool 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 48% | Hartlepool 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.71 xG and Hartlepool 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 1.012 / defence 1.055 | Hartlepool attack 0.633 / defence 1.563. League average goals — home 1.082 / away 1.149. Hartlepool bring a strong defensive rating of 1.563 — this is suppressing Mansfield Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 21 Mansfield Town games / 21 Hartlepool games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 58% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 15%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 1.72 | Draw 3.70 | Hartlepool 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Mansfield Town (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Mansfield Town 60% | Hartlepool 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: One Call Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mansfield Town 58% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Mansfield Town 1.71 / Hartlepool 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Mansfield Town attack 1.012 / def 1.055 | Hartlepool attack 0.633 / def 1.563 | league avg home 1.082 / away 1.149 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Mansfield Town xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Hartlepool xG
46%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool kick off?
Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at One Call Stadium.
What was the final score in Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool?
Mansfield Town 3 - 2 Hartlepool.
Where is Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool being played?
The match is being played at One Call Stadium.
What competition is Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool part of?
Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool?
Our statistical model gives Mansfield Town a 58% chance of winning, Hartlepool a 15% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Mansfield Town and Hartlepool will score (BTTS).
Will Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Hartlepool?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mansfield Town and Hartlepool in?
Mansfield Town (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Hartlepool (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Mansfield Town's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Hartlepool's defensive record (1.56x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — Hartlepool's attack (0.63x) against Mansfield Town's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.77.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.4%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
58%
1.72
27%
3.70
15%
6.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Mansfield Town xG
Total xG
2.48
0.77
Hartlepool xG
1.72
58%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
6.77
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
46%
2.15
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
27%
3.70
3%
37.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 6.4 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.4 | 11.0 | 4.2 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Mansfield Town and Hartlepool expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Mansfield Town and 0.77 for Hartlepool, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 21 outings, Mansfield Town have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 8W 5D 8L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Mansfield Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Hartlepool's form line: 8W 3D 10L from 21 games, 1.29 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Hartlepool is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Mansfield Town against 1.29 for Hartlepool. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Mansfield Town have posted 1.50 PPG from 10 outings (4W 3D 3L).
On the road, Hartlepool have gone 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.29 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Hartlepool's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mansfield Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Mansfield Town are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Hartlepool are on 1.05 scored and 1.48 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 21 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mansfield Town
Blended
Hartlepool
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mansfield Town and Hartlepool in coming into this match?
Mansfield Town have gone 8W 5D 8L in their last 21 games (1.38 PPG), while Hartlepool have gone 8W 3D 10L in their last 21 (1.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mansfield Town at home or Hartlepool away?
Mansfield Town's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mansfield Town at home: 1.50 PPG; Hartlepool away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 December 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Mansfield Town have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Hartlepool — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Mansfield Town
2
Draws
0
Hartlepool
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mansfield Town and Hartlepool?
From 4 meetings on record, Mansfield Town have won 2, Hartlepool have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Mansfield Town and Hartlepool last play each other?
They last met on 29 December 2022, when Hartlepool 1-2 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Mansfield Town and Hartlepool?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Hartlepool are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mansfield Town 60%, Hartlepool 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Mansfield Town) and 40% (Hartlepool).
On the defensive side: Hartlepool in 70%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mansfield Town home games / Hartlepool away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mansfield Town play Hartlepool?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Mansfield Town's recent matches and 30% of Hartlepool's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mansfield Town vs Hartlepool usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Mansfield Town's recent games and 40% of Hartlepool's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mansfield Town and Hartlepool tend to score early?
Mansfield Town have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Hartlepool in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Hartlepool 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Hartlepool 3-2 at One Call Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mansfield Town 1.71 xG and Hartlepool 0.77 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Mansfield Town beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Hartlepool outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mansfield Town attack 1.01 / defence 1.05 against Hartlepool attack 0.63 / defence 1.56, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mansfield Town 58% | Draw 27% | Hartlepool 15%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mansfield Town 48%, Hartlepool 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mansfield Town's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Hartlepool's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mansfield Town 1.38 PPG, Hartlepool 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mansfield Town win broke the near-deadlock. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Hartlepool (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.60 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.