Carlisle 1-1 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Carlisle take on Crawley Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Carlisle host Crawley Town at Brunton Park in League Two, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 15 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carlisle stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Carlisle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Carlisle have posted 3W 4D 3L at Brunton Park — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Crawley Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crawley Town's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carlisle 1.40 PPG, Crawley Town 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Carlisle have won 0, Crawley Town 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Crawley Town winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Carlisle trading profile (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
Crawley Town trading profile (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carlisle 36% versus Crawley Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carlisle 46% | Crawley Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carlisle 0.80 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carlisle attack 0.726 / defence 0.962 | Crawley Town attack 0.888 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.142. Carlisle's attack strength of 0.726 is below the league average — the 0.80 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Carlisle games / 22 Crawley Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 37% | Crawley Town 36%. Fair-value odds: Carlisle 3.85 | Draw 2.70 | Crawley Town 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 26% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.77 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 26% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Carlisle 30% | Crawley Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carlisle vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Brunton Park • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carlisle 26% | Draw 37% | Crawley Town 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 37% | xG Carlisle 0.80 / Crawley Town 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Carlisle attack 0.726 / def 0.962 | Crawley Town attack 0.888 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.142 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.80
Carlisle xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Crawley Town xG
37%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carlisle vs Crawley Town kick off?
Carlisle vs Crawley Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 15 January 2022 at Brunton Park.
What was the final score in Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Carlisle 1 - 1 Crawley Town.
Where is Carlisle vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Brunton Park.
What competition is Carlisle vs Crawley Town part of?
Carlisle vs Crawley Town is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Carlisle a 26% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Carlisle and Crawley Town will score (BTTS).
Will Carlisle vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
Record (1 meetings): Carlisle 0W | Draws 0 | Crawley Town 1W.
What form are Carlisle and Crawley Town in?
Carlisle (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Crawley Town (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Carlisle's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against Crawley Town's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.80. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Carlisle's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
26%
3.78
37%
2.67
36%
2.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.5%
Away win
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.80
Carlisle xG
Total xG
1.77
0.97
Crawley Town xG
3.78
26%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.77
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.74
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
45%
2.23
Win to Nil
10%
10.02
16%
6.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.9 | 16.5 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.7%.
How many goals are Carlisle and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 0.80 expected goals for Carlisle and 0.97 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Carlisle vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Carlisle come into this having played 22 games, going 6W 6D 10L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Carlisle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Crawley Town sit at 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L), a run that reads L-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Crawley Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carlisle on 1.09 PPG, Crawley Town on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Carlisle's home form reads 3W 4D 3L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Crawley Town have taken 1.60 points per game from 10 outings (5W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Carlisle are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.23 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crawley Town in 64%.
Last 22 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carlisle
Blended
Crawley Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carlisle and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Carlisle have gone 6W 6D 10L in their last 22 games (1.09 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 9W 4D 9L in their last 22 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carlisle at home or Crawley Town away?
Crawley Town's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carlisle at home: 1.30 PPG; Crawley Town away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Carlisle or Crawley Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carlisle have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Crawley Town in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Carlisle go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when Carlisle won 2-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Carlisle's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Carlisle
1
Draws
1
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
From 4 meetings on record, Carlisle have won 2, Crawley Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Carlisle and Crawley Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 February 2023, when Crawley Town 2-5 Carlisle.
Who has won more matches between Carlisle and Crawley Town?
Carlisle have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carlisle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carlisle 30%, Crawley Town 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 20% for Carlisle and 40% for Crawley Town.
On the defensive side: Carlisle keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Crawley Town in 40%; Carlisle have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carlisle home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carlisle play Crawley Town?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Carlisle's recent matches and 50% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carlisle vs Crawley Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Carlisle's recent games and 40% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carlisle and Crawley Town tend to score early?
Carlisle have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Crawley Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Carlisle and Crawley Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Carlisle and Crawley Town finished level at 1-1 at Brunton Park, Regular Season - 27, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carlisle 0.80 xG and Crawley Town 0.97 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carlisle attack 0.73 / defence 0.96 against Crawley Town attack 0.89 / defence 0.98, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carlisle 26% | Draw 37% | Crawley Town 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carlisle 46%, Crawley Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carlisle's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Crawley Town's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carlisle 1.09 PPG, Crawley Town 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.