Port Vale 0-1 Salford City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Port Vale host Salford City at Vale Park in League Two, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 18 January 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Port Vale — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Vale Park, Port Vale have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all League Two games this season, Salford City have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Port Vale) versus 1.50 (Salford City). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Salford City in-play and half-time data (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 59% versus Salford City 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 50% | Salford City 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.30 xG and Salford City 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.001 / defence 1.215 | Salford City attack 0.923 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.124 / away 1.140. Data: 22 Port Vale games / 24 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 32% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.86 | Draw 3.12 | Salford City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Port Vale are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 50% | Salford City 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Salford City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 18 Jan 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 35% | Draw 32% | Salford City 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 55% | xG Port Vale 1.30 / Salford City 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.001 / def 1.215 | Salford City attack 0.923 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.124 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Salford City xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Salford City kick off?
Port Vale vs Salford City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 18 January 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Salford City?
Port Vale 0 - 1 Salford City.
Where is Port Vale vs Salford City being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Salford City part of?
Port Vale vs Salford City is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 35% chance of winning, Salford City a 34% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Port Vale and Salford City will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Salford City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Salford City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Salford City in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Salford City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (1.00) and Salford City's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Salford City's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
35%
2.88
32%
3.17
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.58
1.28
Salford City xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
28%
3.59
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
10%
10.35
9%
10.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.2 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Salford City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Salford City expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.28 for Salford City, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Salford City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Port Vale's recent record stands at 10W 5D 7L from 22 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Salford City, meanwhile, have gone 8W 5D 9L across 22 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.59 PPG, Salford City on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Port Vale have managed 5W 3D 3L from 11 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Salford City's away record stands at 3W 1D 7L across 11 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Salford City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.64 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Salford City are on 1.23 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Salford City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Salford City in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 games (1.59 PPG), while Salford City have gone 8W 5D 9L in their last 22 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Salford City away?
Port Vale's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.64 PPG; Salford City away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Salford City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Salford City in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Salford City runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Port Vale go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Port Vale's record when hosting Salford City specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Port Vale
0
Draws
1
Salford City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Salford City?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 3, Salford City have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Salford City last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2025, when Port Vale 2-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Salford City?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 46%, Salford City 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Port Vale) and 54% (Salford City).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Port Vale have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Salford City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Salford City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Port Vale's recent matches and 64% of Salford City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Salford City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Port Vale's recent games and 54% of Salford City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Salford City tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Salford City in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Salford City defy the odds to beat Port Vale 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Port Vale 0-1 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 23, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.30 xG and Salford City 1.28 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Port Vale fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.00 / defence 1.22 against Salford City attack 0.92 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 35% | Draw 32% | Salford City 34%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Salford City win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 50%, Salford City 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Salford City's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.59 PPG, Salford City 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Salford City (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.