Port Vale 0-0 Exeter City – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Port Vale at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Exeter City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Exeter City travel to Vale Park to take on Port Vale. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 22 March 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Port Vale stand at 5W 4D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Exeter City — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Exeter City's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Port Vale at 1.90 PPG versus Exeter City's 2.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Port Vale in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Exeter City in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 58% versus Exeter City 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 42% | Exeter City 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.19 xG and Exeter City 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 1.175 / defence 0.969 | Exeter City attack 0.987 / defence 0.979. League average goals — home 1.029 / away 1.129. Data: 36 Port Vale games / 36 Exeter City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 33% | Exeter City 31%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Exeter City 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Port Vale at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Port Vale offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Port Vale 40% | Exeter City 60%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Exeter City | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 22 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 36% | Draw 33% | Exeter City 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 48% | xG Port Vale 1.19 / Exeter City 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 1.175 / def 0.969 | Exeter City attack 0.987 / def 0.979 | league avg home 1.029 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Exeter City xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Exeter City kick off?
Port Vale vs Exeter City kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 22 March 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Exeter City?
Port Vale 0 - 0 Exeter City.
Where is Port Vale vs Exeter City being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Exeter City part of?
Port Vale vs Exeter City is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Exeter City?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 36% chance of winning, Exeter City a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Exeter City?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Port Vale and Exeter City will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Exeter City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Exeter City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Exeter City in?
Port Vale (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Exeter City (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Port Vale's attack rating (1.18) and Exeter City's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.19 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Exeter City's attack versus Port Vale's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
36%
2.77
33%
3.03
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.27
1.08
Exeter City xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
31%
3.27
Win to Nil
12%
8.15
9%
10.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 13.3 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.9 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Exeter City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Exeter City expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.08 for Exeter City, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Exeter City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 16W 11D 9L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Exeter City's form line: 17W 13D 6L from 36 games, 1.78 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Port Vale on 1.64 PPG, Exeter City on 1.78. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.78 PPG from 18 outings (9W 5D 4L).
On the road, Exeter City have gone 7W 7D 4L from 18 away games — 1.56 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Port Vale are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Exeter City are on 1.50 scored and 0.97 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Exeter City in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Current Season
Exeter City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Exeter City in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 16W 11D 9L in their last 36 games (1.64 PPG), while Exeter City have gone 17W 13D 6L in their last 36 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Exeter City away?
Port Vale's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.78 PPG; Exeter City away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Exeter City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Exeter City in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Port Vale and Exeter City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 24 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Exeter City won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Port Vale's record when hosting Exeter City specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Port Vale
1
Draws
3
Exeter City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Exeter City?
From 8 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 4, Exeter City have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Exeter City last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2026, when Port Vale 1-3 Exeter City.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Exeter City?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Exeter City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 44%, Exeter City 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Port Vale) and 50% (Exeter City).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Exeter City in 33%; Port Vale have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Exeter City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Exeter City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Port Vale's recent matches and 61% of Exeter City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Port Vale vs Exeter City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Port Vale's recent games and 50% of Exeter City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Exeter City tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Exeter City in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Port Vale's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Vale Park, Regular Season - 22, as Port Vale and Exeter City drew 0-0 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.19 xG and Exeter City 1.08 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Port Vale fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Exeter City landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Exeter City attack 0.99 / defence 0.98, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 36% | Draw 33% | Exeter City 31%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 42%, Exeter City 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Exeter City's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.64 PPG, Exeter City 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Port Vale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Exeter City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.39 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.