Sutton Utd 1-0 Harrogate Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sutton Utd at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Harrogate Town travel to VBS Community Stadium to take on Sutton Utd. The game is scheduled for Saturday 18 December 2021, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sutton Utd stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sutton Utd, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sutton Utd's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 3L across 9 games at VBS Community Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sutton Utd are significantly better at VBS Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Across all League Two games this season, Harrogate Town have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Harrogate Town, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Harrogate Town have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Sutton Utd are in the better shape of the two on current League Two data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Sutton Utd trading profile (21 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Harrogate Town trading profile (21 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sutton Utd 52% versus Harrogate Town 67%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sutton Utd 52% | Harrogate Town 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sutton Utd 1.36 xG and Harrogate Town 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sutton Utd attack 1.107 / defence 1.064 | Harrogate Town attack 1.077 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.081 / away 1.179. Data: 21 Sutton Utd games / 21 Harrogate Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sutton Utd 35% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 35%. Fair-value odds: Sutton Utd 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Harrogate Town 2.86. The draw (31%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 31% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Sutton Utd 44% | Harrogate Town 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: VBS Community Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 18 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sutton Utd 35% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 58% | xG Sutton Utd 1.36 / Harrogate Town 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Sutton Utd attack 1.107 / def 1.064 | Harrogate Town attack 1.077 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.081 / away 1.179 • Poisson stance: Draw (31%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Sutton Utd xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Harrogate Town xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town kick off?
Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 18 December 2021 at VBS Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Sutton Utd 1 - 0 Harrogate Town.
Where is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town being played?
The match is being played at VBS Community Stadium.
What competition is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town part of?
Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our statistical model gives Sutton Utd a 35% chance of winning, Harrogate Town a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town will score (BTTS).
Will Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town in?
Sutton Utd (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Harrogate Town (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Sutton Utd's attack rating (1.11) and Harrogate Town's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.36 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Harrogate Town's attack versus Sutton Utd's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 21/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sutton Utd Win
35%
2.88
31%
3.25
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Sutton Utd xG
Total xG
2.71
1.35
Harrogate Town xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
9%
11.13
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.0 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Sutton Utd and 1.35 for Harrogate Town, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sutton Utd's recent record stands at 10W 3D 8L from 21 games, a 1.57 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Sutton Utd is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Harrogate Town, meanwhile, have gone 8W 6D 7L across 21 games — 1.43 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Harrogate Town is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sutton Utd on 1.57 PPG, Harrogate Town on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sutton Utd have managed 6W 0D 3L from 9 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Sutton Utd are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Harrogate Town's away record stands at 4W 2D 3L across 9 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sutton Utd come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sutton Utd are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Harrogate Town are on 1.67 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Harrogate Town in 67%.
Defensively: Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sutton Utd
Blended
Harrogate Town
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town in coming into this match?
Sutton Utd have gone 10W 3D 8L in their last 21 games (1.57 PPG), while Harrogate Town have gone 8W 6D 7L in their last 21 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sutton Utd at home or Harrogate Town away?
Sutton Utd's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sutton Utd at home: 2.00 PPG; Harrogate Town away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Sutton Utd or Harrogate Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sutton Utd have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Harrogate Town in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Sutton Utd's record when hosting Harrogate Town specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sutton Utd
1
Draws
1
Harrogate Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Sutton Utd have won 4, Harrogate Town have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2024, when Harrogate Town 2-2 Sutton Utd.
Who has won more matches between Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town?
Sutton Utd have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sutton Utd are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Harrogate Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sutton Utd 44%, Harrogate Town 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Sutton Utd) and 56% (Harrogate Town). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sutton Utd keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sutton Utd home games / Harrogate Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sutton Utd play Harrogate Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Sutton Utd's games and 67% of Harrogate Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sutton Utd vs Harrogate Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Sutton Utd's matches and 56% of Harrogate Town's.
Do Sutton Utd and Harrogate Town tend to score early?
Sutton Utd have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Harrogate Town in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sutton Utd edge out Harrogate Town 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sutton Utd beat Harrogate Town 1-0 at VBS Community Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sutton Utd 1.36 xG and Harrogate Town 1.35 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Harrogate Town landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sutton Utd attack 1.11 / defence 1.06 against Harrogate Town attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sutton Utd 35% | Draw 31% | Harrogate Town 35%, with Sutton Utd to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sutton Utd 52%, Harrogate Town 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sutton Utd's trading profile (21 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Harrogate Town's trading profile (21 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sutton Utd 1.57 PPG, Harrogate Town 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sutton Utd win broke the near-deadlock. Sutton Utd (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Harrogate Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.67 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.