Salford City 0-2 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gillingham at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Gillingham travel to The Peninsula Stadium to take on Salford City. The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 March 2024, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Salford City have posted 2W 4D 4L at The Peninsula Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Peninsula Stadium this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gillingham have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Salford City at 1.70 PPG versus Gillingham's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Salford City have won 1, Gillingham 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 1–3 with Gillingham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Salford City trading profile (80 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Gillingham trading profile (80 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Gillingham 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 54% | Gillingham 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.47 xG and Gillingham 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.148 / defence 1.457 | Gillingham attack 0.820 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.312. Data: 81 Salford City games / 80 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 35% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 39%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Gillingham 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.47 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gillingham are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gillingham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 80% | Gillingham 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Gillingham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 35% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Salford City 1.47 / Gillingham 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.148 / def 1.457 | Gillingham attack 0.820 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Gillingham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Gillingham xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Gillingham kick off?
Salford City vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Gillingham?
Salford City 0 - 2 Gillingham.
Where is Salford City vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Gillingham part of?
Salford City vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 35% chance of winning, Gillingham a 39% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gillingham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Salford City and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Gillingham?
Record (3 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Gillingham 2W.
What form are Salford City and Gillingham in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-W-L-D. Gillingham (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Gillingham's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Gillingham's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 81/80 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gillingham Win
35%
2.84
25%
3.93
39%
2.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Salford City xG
Total xG
3.04
1.57
Gillingham xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.54
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
7%
13.65
9%
11.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.0 | 8.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Salford City and 1.57 for Gillingham, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 80 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 31W 18D 31L record — D-D-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Gillingham's form line: 29W 19D 32L from 80 games, 1.32 PPG, last five W-D-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.39 PPG, Gillingham on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salford City have posted 1.28 PPG from 39 outings (13W 11D 15L).
On the road, Gillingham have gone 10W 9D 20L from 39 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 0.85 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Gillingham in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 80 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Gillingham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 31W 18D 31L in their last 80 games (1.39 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 29W 19D 32L in their last 80 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Gillingham away?
Salford City's home record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.28 PPG; Gillingham away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Salford City or Gillingham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Gillingham in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Dec 2022, when Salford City won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Gillingham specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Salford City
2
Draws
4
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Gillingham?
From 8 meetings on record, Salford City have won 2, Gillingham have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Salford City 0-0 Gillingham.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Gillingham?
Gillingham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Gillingham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 62%, Gillingham 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 51% (Salford City) and 31% (Gillingham).
On the defensive side: Gillingham in 33%; Salford City have failed to score in 26% of games; Gillingham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Salford City's recent matches and 33% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 51% of Salford City's recent games and 31% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Gillingham tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gillingham cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gillingham beat Salford City 0-2 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.47 xG and Gillingham 1.57 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.15 / defence 1.46 against Gillingham attack 0.82 / defence 0.88, drawn from 81/80 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 35% | Draw 25% | Gillingham 39%, with Gillingham to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Gillingham 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (80 games, 39 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Gillingham's trading profile (80 games, 39 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.39 PPG, Gillingham 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gillingham win broke the near-deadlock. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Gillingham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.