Newport County 0-1 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 48% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 36 as Newport County welcome Mansfield Town to Rodney Parade. Kick-off is set for Saturday 2 March 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Newport County — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Newport County have posted 5W 4D 1L at Rodney Parade — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mansfield Town's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Newport County at 2.00 PPG versus Mansfield Town's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Mansfield Town have the better historical record — 3 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Newport County.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Mansfield Town winning.
It is worth noting that Mansfield Town have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Newport County in-play tendencies (79 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town in-play tendencies (79 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 56% versus Mansfield Town 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 52% | Mansfield Town 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.23 xG and Mansfield Town 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 1.009 / defence 1.003 | Mansfield Town attack 1.311 / defence 0.836. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.312. Mansfield Town have an above-average attack strength of 1.311 — the away xG of 1.73 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 80 Newport County games / 79 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newport County 27% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 48%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 3.70 | Draw 4.00 | Mansfield Town 2.08. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Newport County 70% | Mansfield Town 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Saturday 2 Mar 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 27% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Newport County 1.23 / Mansfield Town 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 1.009 / def 1.003 | Mansfield Town attack 1.311 / def 0.836 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Mansfield Town xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newport County vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Newport County vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 2 March 2024 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Mansfield Town?
Newport County 0 - 1 Mansfield Town.
Where is Newport County vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Mansfield Town part of?
Newport County vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 27% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Newport County and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Newport County vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Mansfield Town?
Record (5 meetings): Newport County 0W | Draws 2 | Mansfield Town 3W.
What form are Newport County and Mansfield Town in?
Newport County (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Mansfield Town (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Newport County's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Mansfield Town's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.23. The same calculation in reverse, Mansfield Town's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
27%
3.76
25%
4.00
48%
2.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Newport County xG
Total xG
2.96
1.73
Mansfield Town xG
3.76
27%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.07
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.70
41%
BTTS No
2.43
Clean Sheet
18%
5.61
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
5%
21.08
14%
7.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 9.0 | 7.7 | 4.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 11.0 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Newport County and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Newport County and 1.73 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Newport County's recent record stands at 28W 21D 30L from 79 games, a 1.33 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Mansfield Town, meanwhile, have gone 38W 24D 17L across 79 games — 1.75 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Mansfield Town by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Newport County heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 14W 13D 13L from 40 games — 1.38 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mansfield Town's away record stands at 20W 10D 10L across 40 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Newport County are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.76 scored and 1.06 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Mansfield Town in 61%.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newport County and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 28W 21D 30L in their last 79 games (1.33 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 38W 24D 17L in their last 79 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Mansfield Town away?
Mansfield Town's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.38 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Newport County or Mansfield Town been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newport County have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Mansfield Town in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Mansfield Town have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
Newport County's record when hosting Mansfield Town specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Newport County
2
Draws
4
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Mansfield Town?
From 6 meetings on record, Newport County have won 0, Mansfield Town have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2024, when Newport County 0-1 Mansfield Town.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Mansfield Town?
Mansfield Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 62%, Mansfield Town 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Newport County) and 55% (Mansfield Town).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newport County play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Newport County's games and 62% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newport County vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Newport County's recent games and 55% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Newport County have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Mansfield Town edge out Newport County 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mansfield Town beat Newport County 0-1 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.23 xG and Mansfield Town 1.73 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Newport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Mansfield Town attack 1.31 / defence 0.84, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 27% | Draw 25% | Mansfield Town 48%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 52%, Mansfield Town 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (79 games, 40 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (79 games, 40 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Mansfield Town arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.