Colchester 1-2 Stockport County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Stockport County (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Colchester face Stockport County.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League Two encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Stockport County travel to JobServe Community Stadium to take on Colchester. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 9 April 2024, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Colchester — All Games: 1W 6D 3L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Colchester have posted 2W 4D 4L at JobServe Community Stadium — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all League Two games this season, Stockport County have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stockport County away from home this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Stockport County are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Colchester register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Stockport County in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Stockport County have the better historical record — 3 wins from 3 previous contests against 0 for Colchester.
The last 3 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.3 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Nov 2023, ended 0–2 with Stockport County winning.
It is worth noting that Stockport County have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 3 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Colchester in-play tendencies (86 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Stockport County in-play tendencies (86 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Colchester 57% versus Stockport County 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Colchester 42% | Stockport County 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Colchester 1.29 xG and Stockport County 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Colchester attack 0.970 / defence 1.196 | Stockport County attack 1.291 / defence 0.944. League average goals — home 1.411 / away 1.297. Stockport County have an above-average attack strength of 1.291 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 86 Colchester games / 87 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Colchester 24% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 54%. Fair-value odds: Colchester 4.17 | Draw 4.55 | Stockport County 1.85. Stockport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 2.00) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Stockport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.29 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 63% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Colchester 90% | Stockport County 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Colchester vs Stockport County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: JobServe Community Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 9 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Colchester 24% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 63% | xG Colchester 1.29 / Stockport County 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Colchester attack 0.970 / def 1.196 | Stockport County attack 1.291 / def 0.944 | league avg home 1.411 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Colchester xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Stockport County xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Colchester vs Stockport County kick off?
Colchester vs Stockport County kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 9 April 2024 at JobServe Community Stadium.
What was the final score in Colchester vs Stockport County?
Colchester 1 - 2 Stockport County.
Where is Colchester vs Stockport County being played?
The match is being played at JobServe Community Stadium.
What competition is Colchester vs Stockport County part of?
Colchester vs Stockport County is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our statistical model gives Colchester a 24% chance of winning, Stockport County a 54% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Colchester and Stockport County will score (BTTS).
Will Colchester vs Stockport County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stockport County?
Record (3 meetings): Colchester 0W | Draws 0 | Stockport County 3W.
What form are Colchester and Stockport County in?
Colchester (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Stockport County (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Colchester's attack rating (0.97) and Stockport County's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Stockport County's attack versus Colchester's defence, projects 2.00 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 86/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
24%
4.14
22%
4.49
54%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
7.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Colchester xG
Total xG
3.29
2.00
Stockport County xG
4.14
24%
Home win
4.49
22%
Draw
1.87
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
13%
7.41
27%
3.64
Win to Nil
3%
30.69
15%
6.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 7.4 | 7.4 | 5.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 6.2 | 6.2 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Colchester vs Stockport County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Colchester and Stockport County expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Colchester and 2.00 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Colchester vs Stockport County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Colchester come into this having played 86 games, going 21W 24D 41L for 1.01 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Stockport County sit at 1.86 PPG from 86 outings (45W 25D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Stockport County carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Colchester — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Colchester's home form reads 11W 15D 16L across 42 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Stockport County have taken 1.76 points per game from 42 outings (21W 11D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Colchester are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Stockport County are on 1.69 scored and 0.86 conceded.
Defensively: Stockport County in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Colchester
Current Season
Stockport County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Colchester and Stockport County in coming into this match?
Colchester have gone 21W 24D 41L in their last 86 games (1.01 PPG), while Stockport County have gone 45W 25D 16L in their last 86 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Colchester at home or Stockport County away?
Stockport County's away record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Colchester at home: 1.14 PPG; Stockport County away: 1.76 PPG.
Have Colchester or Stockport County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Colchester have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Stockport County in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Colchester and Stockport County runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Stockport County have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Colchester's record when hosting Stockport County specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Colchester
0
Draws
4
Stockport County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Colchester and Stockport County?
From 4 meetings on record, Colchester have won 0, Stockport County have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Colchester and Stockport County last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2024, when Colchester 1-2 Stockport County.
Who has won more matches between Colchester and Stockport County?
Stockport County have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Colchester 64%, Stockport County 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Colchester) and 55% (Stockport County).
On the defensive side: Stockport County in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Colchester home games / Stockport County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Colchester play Stockport County?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Colchester's games and 57% of Stockport County's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Colchester vs Stockport County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Colchester's recent games and 55% of Stockport County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Colchester and Stockport County tend to score early?
Colchester have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Stockport County in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Stockport County edge out Colchester 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Colchester 1-2 at JobServe Community Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Colchester 1.29 xG and Stockport County 2.00 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Colchester attack 0.97 / defence 1.20 against Stockport County attack 1.29 / defence 0.94, drawn from 86/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Colchester 24% | Draw 22% | Stockport County 54%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 54%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Colchester 42%, Stockport County 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Colchester's trading profile (86 games, 42 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Stockport County's trading profile (86 games, 42 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Stockport County arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.01. Form held, and they took the win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.