Salford City 1-1 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Colchester at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 27 February 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at The Peninsula Stadium this season.
Colchester — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Salford City have won 1, Colchester 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Colchester winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (79 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Colchester in-play tendencies (79 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 61% versus Colchester 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 54% | Colchester 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 2.02 xG and Colchester 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.207 / defence 1.509 | Colchester attack 0.859 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.292. Data: 80 Salford City games / 79 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 46% | Draw 22% | Colchester 32%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.17 | Draw 4.55 | Colchester 3.12. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.70. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.70 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (2.02 / 1.68) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
Colchester lead the H2H ledger, but Salford City carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 71% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 71% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 80% | Colchester 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 27 Feb 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 46% | Draw 22% | Colchester 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 71% | xG Salford City 2.02 / Colchester 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.207 / def 1.509 | Colchester attack 0.859 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.292 • Poisson stance: Salford City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Colchester xG
71%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Colchester kick off?
Salford City vs Colchester kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 27 February 2024 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Salford City 1 - 1 Colchester.
Where is Salford City vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Colchester part of?
Salford City vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 46% chance of winning, Colchester a 32% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Salford City and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
Record (5 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 1 | Colchester 3W.
What form are Salford City and Colchester in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Colchester (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against Colchester's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 80/79 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
46%
2.18
22%
4.48
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
2 – 2
7.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Salford City xG
Total xG
3.70
1.68
Colchester xG
2.18
46%
Home win
4.48
22%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
31%
Over 4.5
3.23
69%
Under 4.5
1.45
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.41
29%
BTTS No
3.45
Clean Sheet
19%
5.34
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
9%
11.66
4%
23.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.5 | 4.1 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 8.5 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Salford City and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Salford City and 1.68 for Colchester, a combined total of 3.70.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 31W 17D 31L from 79 games, a 1.39 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 20W 20D 39L across 79 games — 1.01 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.39 PPG, Colchester on 1.01. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 13W 10D 15L from 38 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 10W 6D 22L across 38 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.11 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Salford City have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 79 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Colchester in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 31W 17D 31L in their last 79 games (1.39 PPG), while Colchester have gone 20W 20D 39L in their last 79 (1.01 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Colchester away?
Salford City's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.29 PPG; Colchester away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Colchester runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Colchester have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Colchester?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 60%, Colchester 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Salford City) and 45% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Salford City have failed to score in 26% of games; Colchester in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Salford City's recent matches and 47% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Salford City's recent games and 45% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Colchester tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, Colchester in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Salford City and Colchester share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Salford City and Colchester drew 1-1 in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 2.02 xG and Colchester 1.68 xG, a combined 3.70. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.21 / defence 1.51 against Colchester attack 0.86 / defence 1.15, drawn from 80/79 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 46% | Draw 22% | Colchester 32%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 71%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 54%, Colchester 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (79 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (79 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.39 PPG, Colchester 1.01 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.