Salford City 0-3 Colchester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Salford City at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Colchester encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Colchester at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 22 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 League Two matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at The Peninsula Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium.
Colchester — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Colchester, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Salford City have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Salford City have won 1, Colchester 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 2–0 with Salford City winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Colchester in-play tendencies (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 46% versus Colchester 46%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Salford City 38% | Colchester 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.45 xG and Colchester 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 0.881 / defence 0.934 | Colchester attack 0.625 / defence 1.475. League average goals — home 1.116 / away 1.139. Colchester bring a strong defensive rating of 1.475 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 25 Salford City games / 24 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 54% | Draw 31% | Colchester 15%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Colchester 6.67. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.11 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 40% | Colchester 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 54% | Draw 31% | Colchester 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 39% | xG Salford City 1.45 / Colchester 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 0.881 / def 0.934 | Colchester attack 0.625 / def 1.475 | league avg home 1.116 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Salford City (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Colchester xG
39%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Colchester kick off?
Salford City vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 January 2022 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Salford City 0 - 3 Colchester.
Where is Salford City vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Colchester part of?
Salford City vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 54% chance of winning, Colchester a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Salford City and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
Record (1 meetings): Salford City 1W | Draws 0 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Salford City and Colchester in?
Salford City (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Colchester (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Salford City's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Colchester's defensive record (1.48x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.45. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 25/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
54%
1.86
31%
3.19
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.11
0.67
Colchester xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
51%
1.94
23%
4.26
Win to Nil
28%
3.61
3%
28.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 11.6 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Salford City and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Salford City and 0.67 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Salford City's recent record stands at 9W 6D 9L from 24 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Colchester, meanwhile, have gone 5W 7D 12L across 24 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Colchester is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Salford City by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Colchester heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Salford City have managed 5W 5D 2L from 12 games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Colchester's away record stands at 2W 3D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.75 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Salford City are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 0.79 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Colchester
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Colchester in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 9W 6D 9L in their last 24 games (1.38 PPG), while Colchester have gone 5W 7D 12L in their last 24 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Colchester away?
Salford City's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.67 PPG; Colchester away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Salford City or Colchester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Colchester in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Salford City and Colchester runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Salford City go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2022, when Colchester won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Salford City's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Salford City
2
Draws
3
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Colchester?
From 10 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Colchester have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when Colchester 0-1 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Colchester?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Salford City see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 33%, Colchester 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Salford City) and 50% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Colchester in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Salford City's recent matches and 42% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Salford City's recent games and 50% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Colchester tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Colchester in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Colchester run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Salford City.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Salford City 0-3 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.45 xG and Colchester 0.67 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Colchester outscored their 0.67 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 0.88 / defence 0.93 against Colchester attack 0.62 / defence 1.48, drawn from 25/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 54% | Draw 31% | Colchester 15%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Colchester win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 38%, Colchester 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Colchester's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Salford City arrived the stronger side — 1.38 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Colchester winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.