Exeter City 2-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Exeter City at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Exeter City vs Stevenage encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Stevenage make the trip to St James Park to face Exeter City in League Two, Regular Season - 39. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 March 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Exeter City have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W D W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
In front of their own supporters this season, Exeter City have posted 6W 2D 2L at St James Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Stevenage (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 League Two outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in League Two this season, Stevenage have posted 0W 6D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.50 in Exeter City's favour (2.10 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Exeter City 0W, Stevenage 0W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Exeter City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Exeter City 57% versus Stevenage 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Exeter City 51% | Stevenage 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Exeter City 1.56 xG and Stevenage 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Exeter City attack 1.128 / defence 0.993 | Stevenage attack 0.645 / defence 1.363. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.132. Stevenage bring a strong defensive rating of 1.363 — this is suppressing Exeter City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Exeter City games / 37 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Exeter City 56% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 15%. Fair-value odds: Exeter City 1.79 | Draw 3.45 | Stevenage 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Exeter City (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Exeter City at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.29 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Exeter City 50% | Stevenage 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Exeter City vs Stevenage | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 39 | Venue: St James Park • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Mar 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Exeter City 56% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Exeter City 1.56 / Stevenage 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Exeter City attack 1.128 / def 0.993 | Stevenage attack 0.645 / def 1.363 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.132 • Poisson stance: Exeter City (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Exeter City xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Stevenage xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Exeter City vs Stevenage kick off?
Exeter City vs Stevenage kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 26 March 2022 at St James Park.
What was the final score in Exeter City vs Stevenage?
Exeter City 2 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Exeter City vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at St James Park.
What competition is Exeter City vs Stevenage part of?
Exeter City vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 39 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Exeter City vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Exeter City a 56% chance of winning, Stevenage a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Exeter City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Exeter City vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Exeter City and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Exeter City vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Exeter City 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Exeter City and Stevenage in?
Exeter City (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Exeter City's attack at 1.13x the league average against Stevenage's defence at 1.36x — combine the two and it projects 1.56 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.65x) against Exeter City's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.0%), 2-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Exeter City Win
56%
1.80
29%
3.45
15%
6.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.4%
Home win
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Exeter City xG
Total xG
2.29
0.72
Stevenage xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
6.50
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
48%
2.06
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
27%
3.71
3%
31.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.9 | 11.5 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.4 | 9.0 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Exeter City vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Exeter City and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Exeter City and 0.72 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Exeter City vs Stevenage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Exeter City's recent record stands at 17W 14D 6L from 37 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-D in the last five.
Stevenage, meanwhile, have gone 7W 13D 17L across 37 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Exeter City by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Stevenage heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Exeter City have managed 10W 6D 2L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Stevenage's away record stands at 1W 7D 10L across 18 trips, a 0.56 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Exeter City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Exeter City are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.89 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Defensively: Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Exeter City
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Exeter City and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Exeter City have gone 17W 14D 6L in their last 37 games (1.76 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 7W 13D 17L in their last 37 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Exeter City at home or Stevenage away?
Exeter City's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Exeter City at home: 2.00 PPG; Stevenage away: 0.56 PPG.
Have Exeter City or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Exeter City have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Stevenage in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League Two, League One all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stevenage won 4-1 on 1 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Exeter City have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Exeter City
2
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Exeter City and Stevenage?
From 8 meetings on record, Exeter City have won 4, Stevenage have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Exeter City and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Exeter City 3-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Exeter City and Stevenage?
Exeter City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Exeter City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Exeter City 56%, Stevenage 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Exeter City) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Exeter City keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Exeter City have failed to score in 28% of games; Stevenage in 61%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Exeter City home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Exeter City play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Exeter City's recent matches and 33% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Exeter City vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Exeter City's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Exeter City edge out Stevenage 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Exeter City beat Stevenage 2-1 at St James Park, Regular Season - 39, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Exeter City 1.56 xG and Stevenage 0.72 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Exeter City attack 1.13 / defence 0.99 against Stevenage attack 0.65 / defence 1.36, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Exeter City 56% | Draw 29% | Stevenage 15%, with Exeter City to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Exeter City 51%, Stevenage 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Exeter City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Stevenage's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Exeter City arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.