Notts County 3-1 Newport County – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Notts County at 62% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Notts County vs Newport County encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

Newport County travel to Meadow Lane to take on Notts County in League Two (matchday 42). The game is scheduled for Monday 6 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Notts County have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

In front of their own supporters, Notts County have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.

Newport County — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Newport County's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Notts County) versus 1.30 (Newport County). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H

Notts County hold a clear advantage across the 5 H2H matches in our data, with 3 wins compared to 0 for Newport County and 2 draws.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Aug 2025, ended Notts County 1–1 Newport County — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Notts County an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

Notts County trading profile (last 87 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (home games).

Newport County trading profile (last 87 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Notts County 52% versus Newport County 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Notts County 49% | Newport County 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Notts County 2.12 xG and Newport County 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Notts County attack 1.393 / defence 0.997 | Newport County attack 0.917 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Notts County carry an above-average attack rating of 1.393 — their 2.12 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Newport County's defence rating of 1.262 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Notts County's projected output up. Data: built from Notts County's last 87 games and Newport County's last 87.

Result probabilities: Notts County 62% | Draw 20% | Newport County 18%. Fair-value odds: Notts County 1.62 | Draw 4.93 | Newport County 5.51. The model has a clear lean to Notts County (62%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Notts County as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Notts County 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Notts County's last 10 home games and Newport County's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Notts County 40% (last 10 home games) | Newport County 60% (last 10 away games).

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