Salford City 2-1 Notts County – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Salford City at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Salford City vs Notts County encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Peninsula Stadium plays host to Salford City versus Notts County in League Two, Regular Season - 41. Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Salford City have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Peninsula Stadium, Salford City have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Peninsula Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Notts County (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Notts County away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.80 PPG for Salford City against 1.60 for Notts County. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Across 5 previous meetings, Salford City are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Aug 2025, ended 2–1 with Salford City winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Salford City and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Salford City goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Notts County goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (86 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 54% versus Notts County 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 46% | Notts County 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.20 xG and Notts County 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.061 / defence 0.885 | Notts County attack 1.163 / defence 0.933. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.158. Data: 86 Salford City games / 86 Notts County games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 36% | Draw 28% | Notts County 36%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Notts County 2.78. The draw (28%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 28% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 30% | Notts County 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Notts County | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 41 | Venue: Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 36% | Draw 28% | Notts County 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Salford City 1.20 / Notts County 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.061 / def 0.885 | Notts County attack 1.163 / def 0.933 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Draw (28%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Notts County xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Notts County kick off?
Salford City vs Notts County kicked off at 15:00 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Notts County?
Salford City 2 - 1 Notts County.
Where is Salford City vs Notts County being played?
The match is being played at Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Notts County part of?
Salford City vs Notts County is a Regular Season - 41 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Notts County?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 36% chance of winning, Notts County a 36% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Notts County?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Salford City and Notts County will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Notts County have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Notts County?
Record (5 meetings): Salford City 4W | Draws 0 | Notts County 1W.
What form are Salford City and Notts County in?
Salford City (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Notts County (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Salford City's attack rating (1.06) and Notts County's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Notts County's attack (1.16x) against Salford City's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 86/86 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
36%
2.75
28%
3.61
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.39
1.19
Notts County xG
2.75
36%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
30%
3.33
Win to Nil
11%
9.03
11%
9.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.1 | 7.8 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.9 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Notts County?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Salford City and Notts County expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Salford City and 1.19 for Notts County, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Notts County?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Salford City come into this having played 86 games, going 40W 19D 27L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, Notts County sit at 1.66 PPG from 86 outings (42W 17D 27L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Salford City against 1.66 for Notts County. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Salford City's home form reads 22W 8D 13L across 43 games on their own ground, a 1.72 PPG return.
Away from home, Notts County have taken 1.63 points per game from 43 outings (20W 10D 13L).
Attack vs Defence
Salford City are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Notts County are on 1.55 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 86 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Current Season
Notts County
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Notts County in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 40W 19D 27L in their last 86 games (1.62 PPG), while Notts County have gone 42W 17D 27L in their last 86 (1.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Notts County away?
Salford City's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.72 PPG; Notts County away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Salford City or Notts County been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Notts County in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 25 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Salford City won 3-0 on 14 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Salford City have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Notts County — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Salford City
0
Draws
2
Notts County
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Notts County?
From 7 meetings on record, Salford City have won 5, Notts County have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Notts County last play each other?
They last met on 25 May 2026, when Notts County 3-0 Salford City.
Who has won more matches between Salford City and Notts County?
Salford City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Salford City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Notts County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 49%, Notts County 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Salford City) and 46% (Notts County).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Notts County away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Notts County?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Salford City's recent matches and 54% of Notts County's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Notts County usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Salford City's recent games and 46% of Notts County's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Notts County tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Notts County in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Salford City edge out Notts County 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City beat Notts County 2-1 at Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.20 xG and Notts County 1.19 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.06 / defence 0.89 against Notts County attack 1.16 / defence 0.93, drawn from 86/86 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 36% | Draw 28% | Notts County 36%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 46%, Notts County 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Notts County's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.62 PPG, Notts County 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Salford City win broke the near-deadlock. Notts County (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.