Crawley Town 0-2 Grimsby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grimsby at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Grimsby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 42 as Crawley Town welcome Grimsby to The Broadfield Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League Two games this season, Crawley Town have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Crawley Town's form when playing at home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 games at The Broadfield Stadium this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grimsby — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League Two fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.10. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Grimsby's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Grimsby's 1.70 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Crawley Town's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Grimsby and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 0–3 with Grimsby winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (85 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Grimsby in-play tendencies (85 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 49% versus Grimsby 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Grimsby 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.07 xG and Grimsby 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.979 / defence 1.119 | Grimsby attack 0.916 / defence 0.902. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Data: 41 Crawley Town games / 85 Grimsby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 33% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 39%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 3.03 | Draw 3.45 | Grimsby 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grimsby are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grimsby offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 60% | Grimsby 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Grimsby | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 42 | Venue: The Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 6 Apr 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 33% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Crawley Town 1.07 / Grimsby 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.979 / def 1.119 | Grimsby attack 0.916 / def 0.902 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.164 • Poisson stance: Grimsby (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Grimsby xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Grimsby kick off?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby kicked off at 15:00 on Monday 6 April 2026 at The Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Crawley Town 0 - 2 Grimsby.
Where is Crawley Town vs Grimsby being played?
The match is being played at The Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Grimsby part of?
Crawley Town vs Grimsby is a Regular Season - 42 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 33% chance of winning, Grimsby a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Grimsby the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Crawley Town and Grimsby will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Grimsby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 2W | Draws 1 | Grimsby 2W.
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Grimsby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Crawley Town's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Grimsby's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, Grimsby's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/85 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 0-1 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grimsby Win
33%
3.07
29%
3.50
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.5%
Away win
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.26
1.19
Grimsby xG
3.07
33%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
10%
10.12
13%
7.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 12.5 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 7.1 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Grimsby expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.19 for Grimsby, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Grimsby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Crawley Town come into this having played 85 games, going 18W 23D 44L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-W-W.
On the other side, Grimsby sit at 1.53 PPG from 85 outings (37W 19D 29L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Grimsby carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.62 PPG clear of Crawley Town — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Crawley Town's home form reads 11W 14D 16L across 41 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Grimsby have taken 1.51 points per game from 41 outings (17W 11D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Grimsby are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 85 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Grimsby
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Grimsby in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 18W 23D 44L in their last 85 games (0.91 PPG), while Grimsby have gone 37W 19D 29L in their last 85 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Grimsby away?
Grimsby's away record (1.51 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.15 PPG; Grimsby away: 1.51 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Grimsby have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Oct 2022, when Grimsby won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Grimsby specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Grimsby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
From 6 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 2, Grimsby have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Grimsby last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Crawley Town 0-2 Grimsby.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Grimsby?
Grimsby have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Grimsby are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Grimsby 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Crawley Town) and 51% (Grimsby).
On the defensive side: Grimsby in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Grimsby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Grimsby?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 51% of Grimsby's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Crawley Town vs Grimsby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Crawley Town's recent games and 51% of Grimsby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Grimsby tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Grimsby in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Grimsby cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Crawley Town.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grimsby beat Crawley Town 0-2 at The Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 42, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.07 xG and Grimsby 1.19 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Crawley Town fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Grimsby outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.98 / defence 1.12 against Grimsby attack 0.92 / defence 0.90, drawn from 41/85 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 33% | Draw 29% | Grimsby 39%, with Grimsby to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 51%, Grimsby 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (85 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Grimsby's trading profile (85 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Grimsby arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.91. Form held, and they took the win. Crawley Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward. Grimsby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.34 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.