🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Crewe at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crewe vs Salford City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a League Two clash, Regular Season - 42 as Crewe welcome Salford City to Alexandra Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 6 April 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League Two games this season, Crewe have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Crewe's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Alexandra Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Salford City away from home this season: 6W 0D 4L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

Form points away from home here. Salford City's 2.10 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Crewe's 1.60 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Crewe, 3 for Salford City and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 7 meetings have averaged 4.1 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 2 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Crewe winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.1 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Crewe in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Salford City in-play tendencies (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crewe 51% versus Salford City 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crewe 41% | Salford City 47%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crewe 1.37 xG and Salford City 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crewe attack 1.100 / defence 1.064 | Salford City attack 1.002 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.164. Data: 87 Crewe games / 87 Salford City games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crewe 40% | Draw 26% | Salford City 34%. Fair-value odds: Crewe 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Salford City 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Crewe as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Salford City (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crewe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 48% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 4.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Crewe 60% | Salford City 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights