Newport County 0-2 Crawley Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Newport County at 47% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Newport County vs Crawley Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Newport County host Crawley Town at Rodney Parade in League Two (matchday 41). Kick-off is Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Newport County — last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Newport County at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Crawley Town stand at 1W 5D 4L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Crawley Town away from home: 1W 3D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Newport County have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.30 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H
Crawley Town have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against 1 for Newport County.
The 7 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.4 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 9 Aug 2025, ended Newport County 2–1 Crawley Town — a Newport County win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Crawley Town have won 4 of 7 H2H matches, and at 3.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Profile
Newport County in-play tendencies (last 86 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Crawley Town in-play tendencies (last 86 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newport County 49% versus Crawley Town 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newport County 56% | Crawley Town 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newport County 1.17 xG and Crawley Town 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newport County attack 0.841 / defence 1.146 | Crawley Town attack 0.528 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.215 / away 1.158. Crawley Town's attack rating of 0.528 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.70. Data: built from Newport County's last 86 games and Crawley Town's last 40.
Result probabilities: Newport County 47% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 22%. Fair-value odds: Newport County 2.13 | Draw 3.24 | Crawley Town 4.52. Newport County hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.87. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.87 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Crawley Town's lower xG of 0.70 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Newport County at 47% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Newport County offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.87 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Newport County's last 10 home games and Crawley Town's last 10 away games) averaging 1.7 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newport County 40% (last 10 home games) | Crawley Town 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newport County vs Crawley Town | Competition: League Two, matchday 41 | Venue: Rodney Parade • Kick-off: Friday 3 April 2026 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newport County 47% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 35% (No 65%) | xG Newport County 1.17 / Crawley Town 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Newport County attack 0.841 / def 1.146 | Crawley Town attack 0.528 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.215 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Newport County (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.17
Newport County xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Crawley Town xG
35%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newport County vs Crawley Town FAQs
What time does Newport County vs Crawley Town kick off?
Newport County vs Crawley Town kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Friday 3 April 2026 at Rodney Parade.
What was the final score in Newport County vs Crawley Town?
Newport County 0 - 2 Crawley Town.
Where is Newport County vs Crawley Town being played?
The match is being played at Rodney Parade.
What competition is Newport County vs Crawley Town part of?
Newport County vs Crawley Town is a League Two fixture (matchday 41) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newport County vs Crawley Town?
Our statistical model gives Newport County a 47% chance of winning, Crawley Town a 22% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Newport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newport County vs Crawley Town?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Newport County and Crawley Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (65%).
Will Newport County vs Crawley Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Newport County's attack rating (0.84) and Crawley Town's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.17 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crawley Town's attack versus Newport County's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Newport County's last 86 games and Crawley Town's last 40 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 17.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newport County Win
47%
2.13
31%
3.24
22%
4.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.17
Newport County xG
Total xG
1.87
0.70
Crawley Town xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
4.52
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.88
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
31%
3.22
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
7%
14.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.4 | 10.8 | 3.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.6 | 4.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.5 | 7.4 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newport County vs Crawley Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newport County vs Crawley Town?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.1%.
How many goals are Newport County and Crawley Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Newport County and 0.70 for Crawley Town, a combined total of 1.87.
How confident is the prediction model for Newport County vs Crawley Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Newport County's recent record stands at 22W 17D 47L from 86 games, a 0.97 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Crawley Town, meanwhile, have gone 19W 23D 44L across 86 games — 0.93 PPG, with D-D-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Newport County on 0.97 PPG, Crawley Town on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Newport County have managed 14W 9D 20L from their last 43 home games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Crawley Town's away record stands at 7W 9D 27L across their last 43 away games, a 0.70 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Newport County are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Crawley Town are on 1.10 scored and 1.66 conceded.
Last 86 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newport County
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
Newport County (Home) vs Crawley Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newport County
Current Season
Crawley Town
Current Season
❓ Newport County vs Crawley Town Form FAQs
What form are Newport County and Crawley Town in coming into this match?
Newport County have gone 22W 17D 47L in their last 86 games (0.97 PPG), while Crawley Town have gone 19W 23D 44L in their last 86 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newport County at home or Crawley Town away?
Newport County's home record (1.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newport County at home: 1.19 PPG; Crawley Town away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 8 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 3 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 1 Apr 2024, when Crawley Town won Newport County 0-4 Crawley Town.
Newport County's record when hosting Crawley Town specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Newport County
2
Draws
5
Crawley Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Newport County vs Crawley Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newport County and Crawley Town?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Newport County have won 1, Crawley Town have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Newport County and Crawley Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 April 2026: Newport County 0-2 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Newport County and Crawley Town?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Newport County see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newport County 51%, Crawley Town 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Newport County) and 56% (Crawley Town).
On the defensive side: Newport County have failed to score in 37% of games; Crawley Town in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newport County home games / Crawley Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newport County vs Crawley Town Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newport County and Crawley Town matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Newport County's recent matches and 40% of Crawley Town's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newport County and Crawley Town matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Newport County's recent games and 56% of Crawley Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newport County and Crawley Town matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Newport County's recent matches and 65% of Crawley Town's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Newport County.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Crawley Town beat Newport County 0-2 at Rodney Parade, Regular Season - 41, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newport County 1.17 xG and Crawley Town 0.70 xG, a combined 1.87. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Newport County fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Crawley Town outscored their 0.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newport County attack 0.84 / defence 1.15 against Crawley Town attack 0.53 / defence 1.14, drawn from 86/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newport County 47% | Draw 31% | Crawley Town 22%, with Newport County to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Crawley Town win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newport County 56%, Crawley Town 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newport County's trading profile (86 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Crawley Town's trading profile (86 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newport County 0.97 PPG, Crawley Town 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Crawley Town win broke the near-deadlock. Newport County (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. Crawley Town (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.88 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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