🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Crawley Town vs Gillingham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Crawley Town host Gillingham at The Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Guide

Crawley Town — All Games: 0W 5D 5L from 10 League Two outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Crawley Town have posted 1W 5D 4L at The Broadfield Stadium — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Across all League Two games this season, Gillingham have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Gillingham's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League Two this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (Crawley Town) versus 0.70 (Gillingham). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Crawley Town have won 1, Gillingham 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 15 Nov 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Gillingham in-play and half-time data (84 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 50% versus Gillingham 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 51% | Gillingham 36%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.30 xG and Gillingham 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.952 / defence 1.184 | Gillingham attack 0.785 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.192. Data: 39 Crawley Town games / 84 Gillingham games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Crawley Town 41% | Draw 27% | Gillingham 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Gillingham 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates corroborate: Crawley Town 70% | Gillingham 20% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights