Harrogate Town 1-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Cheltenham at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Harrogate Town face Cheltenham.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Cheltenham make the trip to Exercise Stadium to face Harrogate Town in League Two (matchday 35). The match kicks off on Friday 27 February 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Form

Harrogate Town (all games): 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

At home, Harrogate Town have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 home games (0.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 0.90 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Cheltenham have collected 0.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Cheltenham's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

A near-identical PPG reading — 0.90 for Harrogate Town, 0.80 for Cheltenham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Harrogate Town 1–1 Cheltenham — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Harrogate Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 39 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

Cheltenham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 78 games, 39 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Harrogate Town 42% versus Cheltenham 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Harrogate Town 37% | Cheltenham 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Harrogate Town 0.99 xG and Cheltenham 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Harrogate Town attack 0.617 / defence 1.235 | Cheltenham attack 0.850 / defence 1.282. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.186. Harrogate Town's attack rating of 0.617 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.99. Cheltenham's defence rating of 1.282 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Harrogate Town's projected output up. Harrogate Town's defence rating of 1.235 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cheltenham's projected output up. Data: built from Harrogate Town's last 80 games and Cheltenham's last 78.

Result probabilities: Harrogate Town 29% | Draw 29% | Cheltenham 42%. Fair-value odds: Harrogate Town 3.40 | Draw 3.50 | Cheltenham 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Cheltenham are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cheltenham if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.24 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Harrogate Town 20% (last 10 home games) | Cheltenham 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights