Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Accrington ST at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Accrington ST vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
The Wham Stadium plays host to Accrington ST versus Cheltenham in League Two, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Saturday 31 January 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Accrington ST have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 League Two outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Accrington ST, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Wham Stadium, Accrington ST have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Cheltenham (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 League Two outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cheltenham away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Accrington ST. A 0.60 PPG lead over Cheltenham (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Accrington ST 1W, Cheltenham 3W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Cheltenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Accrington ST half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cheltenham half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Accrington ST 49% versus Cheltenham 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Accrington ST 45% | Cheltenham 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Cheltenham 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Accrington ST attack 0.918 / defence 0.859 | Cheltenham attack 0.896 / defence 1.390. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 1.215. Cheltenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.390 — this is suppressing Accrington ST's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Accrington ST games / 73 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 22%. Fair-value odds: Accrington ST 1.85 | Draw 4.00 | Cheltenham 4.55. Accrington ST hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Cheltenham lead the H2H ledger, but Accrington ST carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
On the Poisson output, Accrington ST are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Accrington ST if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.56 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 49% on No. Form rates are neutral: Accrington ST 40% | Cheltenham 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Accrington ST vs Cheltenham | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Wham Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Jan 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Accrington ST 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 49% | xG Accrington ST 1.62 / Cheltenham 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Accrington ST attack 0.918 / def 0.859 | Cheltenham attack 0.896 / def 1.390 | league avg home 1.273 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Accrington ST (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Cheltenham xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kick off?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 31 January 2026 at The Wham Stadium.
What was the final score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Accrington ST 3 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Wham Stadium.
What competition is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham part of?
Accrington ST vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Accrington ST a 54% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Accrington ST the favourite.
Will both teams score in Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Accrington ST and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Accrington ST vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Record (7 meetings): Accrington ST 1W | Draws 3 | Cheltenham 3W.
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in?
Accrington ST (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-L-D-W. Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Accrington ST's attack at 0.92x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cheltenham's attack (0.90x) against Accrington ST's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Accrington ST Win
54%
1.87
25%
4.04
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Accrington ST xG
Total xG
2.56
0.94
Cheltenham xG
1.87
54%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
5.08
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
23.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Accrington ST and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Accrington ST and 0.94 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Accrington ST vs Cheltenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 73 outings, Accrington ST have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 22W 21D 30L record — W-W-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Accrington ST is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham's form line: 25W 15D 33L from 73 games, 1.23 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Accrington ST against 1.23 for Cheltenham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Accrington ST have posted 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (11W 14D 11L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 9W 8D 19L from 36 away games — 0.97 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Accrington ST are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.18 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 73 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Accrington ST
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Accrington ST and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Accrington ST have gone 22W 21D 30L in their last 73 games (1.19 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 25W 15D 33L in their last 73 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Accrington ST at home or Cheltenham away?
Accrington ST's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Accrington ST at home: 1.31 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.97 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 31 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Accrington ST have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cheltenham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Accrington ST
3
Draws
3
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
From 8 meetings on record, Accrington ST have won 2, Cheltenham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Accrington ST and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 31 January 2026, when Accrington ST 3-1 Cheltenham.
Who has won more matches between Accrington ST and Cheltenham?
Cheltenham have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Accrington ST are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Accrington ST 50%, Cheltenham 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Accrington ST) and 58% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Accrington ST keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Accrington ST have failed to score in 31% of games; Cheltenham in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Accrington ST home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Accrington ST play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Accrington ST's recent matches and 56% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Accrington ST vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Accrington ST's recent games and 58% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Accrington ST and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Accrington ST have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Accrington ST cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cheltenham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Accrington ST beat Cheltenham 3-1 at The Wham Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League Two. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Accrington ST 1.62 xG and Cheltenham 0.94 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Accrington ST beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Accrington ST attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Cheltenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.39, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Accrington ST 54% | Draw 25% | Cheltenham 22%, with Accrington ST to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Accrington ST 45%, Cheltenham 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Accrington ST's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Cheltenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Accrington ST 1.19 PPG, Cheltenham 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Accrington ST win broke the near-deadlock. Accrington ST (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Cheltenham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.