Crawley Town 1-1 Barrow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Crawley Town at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Crawley Town face Barrow.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Crawley Town welcome Barrow to Broadfield Stadium in League Two (matchday 36). Kick-off is Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Form Guide
Crawley Town — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Barrow have recorded 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Barrow away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Crawley Town at 1.60 PPG versus Barrow's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams have scored in at least 70% of each side's games (from Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Barrow's last 10 away games). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Crawley Town, 2 for Barrow and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.6 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 18 Nov 2023, ended Crawley Town 0–1 Barrow — a Barrow win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (last 88 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Barrow in-play and half-time data (last 88 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 29 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 57% versus Barrow 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Barrow 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.71 xG and Barrow 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.941 / defence 1.091 | Barrow attack 0.976 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.323. Barrow's defence rating of 1.269 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Crawley Town's projected output up. Data: built from Crawley Town's last 89 games and Barrow's last 88.
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 45% | Draw 23% | Barrow 32%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.24 | Draw 4.26 | Barrow 3.14. Crawley Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.71 / 1.41) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Crawley Town are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Crawley Town's last 10 home games and Barrow's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Crawley Town 70% (last 10 home games) | Barrow 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Barrow | Competition: League Two, matchday 36 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 16 April 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 45% | Draw 23% | Barrow 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Crawley Town 1.71 / Barrow 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.941 / def 1.091 | Barrow attack 0.976 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.433 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Barrow xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Crawley Town vs Barrow FAQs
What time does Crawley Town vs Barrow kick off?
Crawley Town vs Barrow kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Tuesday 16 April 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Crawley Town 1 - 1 Barrow.
Where is Crawley Town vs Barrow being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Barrow part of?
Crawley Town vs Barrow is a League Two fixture (matchday 36) (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 45% chance of winning, Barrow a 32% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Crawley Town and Barrow will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Crawley Town vs Barrow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Crawley Town's attack at 0.94x the league average against Barrow's defence at 1.27x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Barrow's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Crawley Town's last 89 games and Barrow's last 88 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-2 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
45%
2.24
23%
4.26
32%
3.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
3.12
1.41
Barrow xG
2.24
45%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
3.14
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.63
Clean Sheet
24%
4.10
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
11%
9.16
6%
17.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.2 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 10.6 | 7.5 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 5.2 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Crawley Town vs Barrow Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Barrow expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.41 for Barrow, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Barrow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Crawley Town's recent record stands at 31W 18D 39L from 88 games, a 1.26 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Barrow, meanwhile, have gone 36W 21D 31L across 88 games — 1.47 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.26 PPG, Barrow on 1.47. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Crawley Town have managed 19W 9D 16L from their last 44 home games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Barrow's away record stands at 13W 11D 20L across their last 44 away games, a 1.14 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Crawley Town are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Barrow are on 1.18 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Barrow
Current Season
Crawley Town (Home) vs Barrow (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Crawley Town
Current Season
Barrow
Current Season
❓ Crawley Town vs Barrow Form FAQs
What form are Crawley Town and Barrow in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 31W 18D 39L in their last 88 games (1.26 PPG), while Barrow have gone 36W 21D 31L in their last 88 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Barrow away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.50 PPG; Barrow away: 1.14 PPG.
Have Crawley Town or Barrow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Crawley Town have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Barrow in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2021. All of them came in League Two. The most recent was on 24 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Apr 2023, when Barrow won Barrow 4-0 Crawley Town.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Barrow specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Crawley Town
1
Draws
3
Barrow
Recent Meetings
❓ Crawley Town vs Barrow H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Crawley Town have won 4, Barrow have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Barrow last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 January 2026: Barrow 0-1 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Barrow?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Barrow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 37% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 61%, Barrow 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 46% (Barrow).
On the defensive side: Barrow in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Barrow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Crawley Town vs Barrow Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Crawley Town and Barrow matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Crawley Town's games and 52% of Barrow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Crawley Town and Barrow matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 46% of Barrow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Barrow matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 82% of Barrow's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Crawley Town and Barrow share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 36, as Crawley Town and Barrow drew 1-1 in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.71 xG and Barrow 1.41 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.94 / defence 1.09 against Barrow attack 0.98 / defence 1.27, drawn from 89/88 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 45% | Draw 23% | Barrow 32%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Barrow 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (88 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Barrow's trading profile (88 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.26 PPG, Barrow 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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