Crawley Town 2-3 Colchester – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Crawley Town (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Crawley Town face Colchester.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Crawley Town host Colchester at Broadfield Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 44. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 April 2024 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crawley Town stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 League Two matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Crawley Town at Broadfield Stadium this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Broadfield Stadium this season.
Across all League Two games this season, Colchester have recorded 1W 6D 3L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in League Two this season, Colchester have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Crawley Town have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Crawley Town register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Colchester in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Crawley Town: 3 wins from 5 previous clashes against 0 for Colchester, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Crawley Town winning.
The historical record gives Crawley Town a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Crawley Town in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Colchester in-play and half-time data (87 games, 43 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Crawley Town 56% versus Colchester 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Crawley Town 54% | Colchester 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Crawley Town 1.32 xG and Colchester 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Crawley Town attack 0.915 / defence 0.987 | Colchester attack 0.805 / defence 1.025. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.290. Data: 88 Crawley Town games / 87 Colchester games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Crawley Town 43% | Draw 28% | Colchester 29%. Fair-value odds: Crawley Town 2.33 | Draw 3.57 | Colchester 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Crawley Town at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Crawley Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Crawley Town 70% | Colchester 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Crawley Town vs Colchester | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 44 | Venue: Broadfield Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Apr 2024, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Crawley Town 43% | Draw 28% | Colchester 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Crawley Town 1.32 / Colchester 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Crawley Town attack 0.915 / def 0.987 | Colchester attack 0.805 / def 1.025 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.290 • Poisson stance: Crawley Town (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Crawley Town xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Colchester xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Crawley Town vs Colchester kick off?
Crawley Town vs Colchester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 April 2024 at Broadfield Stadium.
What was the final score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Crawley Town 2 - 3 Colchester.
Where is Crawley Town vs Colchester being played?
The match is being played at Broadfield Stadium.
What competition is Crawley Town vs Colchester part of?
Crawley Town vs Colchester is a Regular Season - 44 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our statistical model gives Crawley Town a 43% chance of winning, Colchester a 29% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Crawley Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Crawley Town and Colchester will score (BTTS).
Will Crawley Town vs Colchester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Record (5 meetings): Crawley Town 3W | Draws 2 | Colchester 0W.
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in?
Crawley Town (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Colchester (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Crawley Town's attack rating (0.92) and Colchester's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Colchester's attack versus Crawley Town's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 88/87 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Crawley Town Win
43%
2.31
28%
3.62
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Crawley Town xG
Total xG
2.34
1.03
Colchester xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.79
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
16%
6.44
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.0 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Crawley Town and Colchester expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Crawley Town and 1.03 for Colchester, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Crawley Town vs Colchester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 87 outings, Crawley Town have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 31W 18D 38L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Colchester's form line: 21W 24D 42L from 87 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Crawley Town on 1.28 PPG, Colchester on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Crawley Town have posted 1.53 PPG from 43 outings (19W 9D 15L).
On the road, Colchester have gone 10W 9D 24L from 43 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Crawley Town come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Crawley Town are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Colchester are on 1.10 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 87 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Crawley Town
Current Season
Colchester
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Crawley Town and Colchester in coming into this match?
Crawley Town have gone 31W 18D 38L in their last 87 games (1.28 PPG), while Colchester have gone 21W 24D 42L in their last 87 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Crawley Town at home or Colchester away?
Crawley Town's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Crawley Town at home: 1.53 PPG; Colchester away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Crawley Town's record when hosting Colchester specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Crawley Town
4
Draws
1
Colchester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Crawley Town and Colchester?
From 8 meetings on record, Crawley Town have won 3, Colchester have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Crawley Town and Colchester last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Colchester 0-0 Crawley Town.
Who has won more matches between Crawley Town and Colchester?
Crawley Town have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Crawley Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Colchester are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Crawley Town 60%, Colchester 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Crawley Town) and 40% (Colchester).
On the defensive side: Crawley Town have failed to score in 26% of games; Colchester in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Crawley Town home games / Colchester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Crawley Town play Colchester?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Crawley Town's recent matches and 49% of Colchester's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Crawley Town vs Colchester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Crawley Town's recent games and 40% of Colchester's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Crawley Town and Colchester tend to score early?
Crawley Town have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Colchester in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Colchester defy the odds to beat Crawley Town 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Colchester beat Crawley Town 2-3 at Broadfield Stadium, Regular Season - 44, in the League Two. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Crawley Town 1.32 xG and Colchester 1.03 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Colchester outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Crawley Town attack 0.92 / defence 0.99 against Colchester attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 88/87 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Crawley Town 43% | Draw 28% | Colchester 29%, with Crawley Town to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Colchester win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Crawley Town 54%, Colchester 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Crawley Town's trading profile (87 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Colchester's trading profile (87 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Crawley Town 1.28 PPG, Colchester 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Colchester win broke the near-deadlock. Crawley Town (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Colchester (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.