Salford City 0-0 Rochdale – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Salford City at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Salford City vs Rochdale fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Salford City host Rochdale at The Peninsula Stadium in League Two, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 19 October 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Salford City stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League Two matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Salford City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salford City at The Peninsula Stadium this season: 3W 3D 1L from 7 home games — 1.71 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.57 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 7 home games (57%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Peninsula Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League Two games this season, Rochdale have recorded 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rochdale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rochdale's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 2L across 6 road games this term (1.33 PPG). They are averaging 1.83 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 83% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Salford City 1.30 PPG, Rochdale 1.20 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Salford City in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Rochdale in-play tendencies (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Salford City 42% versus Rochdale 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Salford City 42% | Rochdale 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Salford City 1.53 xG and Rochdale 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Salford City attack 1.078 / defence 0.927 | Rochdale attack 1.121 / defence 1.421. League average goals — home 1.001 / away 1.065. Rochdale bring a strong defensive rating of 1.421 — this is suppressing Salford City's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Salford City games / 12 Rochdale games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Salford City 46% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 26%. Fair-value odds: Salford City 2.17 | Draw 3.45 | Rochdale 3.85. Salford City hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Salford City are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Salford City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate: Salford City 29% | Rochdale 83% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Salford City vs Rochdale | Competition: League Two, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: The Peninsula Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 Oct 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Salford City 46% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 54% | xG Salford City 1.53 / Rochdale 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Salford City attack 1.078 / def 0.927 | Rochdale attack 1.121 / def 1.421 | league avg home 1.001 / away 1.065 • Poisson stance: Salford City (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.53
Salford City xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Rochdale xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Salford City vs Rochdale kick off?
Salford City vs Rochdale kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 19 October 2021 at The Peninsula Stadium.
What was the final score in Salford City vs Rochdale?
Salford City 0 - 0 Rochdale.
Where is Salford City vs Rochdale being played?
The match is being played at The Peninsula Stadium.
What competition is Salford City vs Rochdale part of?
Salford City vs Rochdale is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the League Two (England).
Who is favourite to win Salford City vs Rochdale?
Our statistical model gives Salford City a 46% chance of winning, Rochdale a 26% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Salford City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Salford City vs Rochdale?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Salford City and Rochdale will score (BTTS).
Will Salford City vs Rochdale have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Rochdale?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Salford City and Rochdale in?
Salford City (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Rochdale (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Salford City's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Rochdale's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.53. The same calculation in reverse, Rochdale's attack versus Salford City's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Salford City Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.50
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.53
Salford City xG
Total xG
2.64
1.11
Rochdale xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.50
29%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.02
22%
4.63
Win to Nil
15%
6.63
6%
17.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.9 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.1 | 6.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Salford City vs Rochdale?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Salford City and Rochdale expected to score?
The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Salford City and 1.11 for Rochdale, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Salford City vs Rochdale?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 12 outings, Salford City have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 4W 3D 5L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Salford City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rochdale's form line: 3W 4D 5L from 12 games, 1.08 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Rochdale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Salford City on 1.25 PPG, Rochdale on 1.08. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Salford City have posted 1.83 PPG from 6 outings (3W 2D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Salford City are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Rochdale have gone 2W 2D 2L from 6 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Salford City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Salford City are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Rochdale are on 1.17 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Defensively: Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — League Two
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Salford City
Blended
Rochdale
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Salford City and Rochdale in coming into this match?
Salford City have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 games (1.25 PPG), while Rochdale have gone 3W 4D 5L in their last 12 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Salford City at home or Rochdale away?
Salford City's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Salford City at home: 1.83 PPG; Rochdale away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Salford City or Rochdale been keeping clean sheets recently?
Salford City have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Rochdale in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League Two. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 February 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Salford City's record when hosting Rochdale specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Salford City
2
Draws
1
Rochdale
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Salford City and Rochdale?
From 4 meetings on record, Salford City have won 1, Rochdale have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Salford City and Rochdale last play each other?
They last met on 4 February 2023, when Salford City 2-1 Rochdale.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Salford City see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Rochdale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Salford City 17%, Rochdale 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Salford City) and 67% (Rochdale).
On the defensive side: Salford City keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Salford City have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Salford City home games / Rochdale away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Salford City play Rochdale?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 17% of Salford City's recent matches and 83% of Rochdale's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Salford City vs Rochdale usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Salford City's recent games and 67% of Rochdale's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Salford City and Rochdale tend to score early?
Salford City have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Rochdale in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Salford City's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Salford City and Rochdale finished level at 0-0 at The Peninsula Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the League Two. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Salford City 1.53 xG and Rochdale 1.11 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Salford City fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Rochdale landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Salford City attack 1.08 / defence 0.93 against Rochdale attack 1.12 / defence 1.42, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Salford City 46% | Draw 29% | Rochdale 26%, with Salford City to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Salford City 42%, Rochdale 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Salford City's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rochdale's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Salford City 1.25 PPG, Rochdale 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Salford City (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Rochdale (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.