Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Stockport County at 58% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Stockport County face Stevenage.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Edgeley Park plays host to Stockport County versus Stevenage in League One (Semi-finals). Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time.
Form
Stockport County (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Stockport County's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Stevenage's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Stockport County against 1.80 for Stevenage. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Stevenage edge it 4 wins to 3, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 9 May 2026, ended Stockport County 1–0 Stevenage — a Stockport County win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Stockport County — key trading statistics (last 93 games, 46 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 31 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 27 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 48%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Stevenage — key trading statistics (last 93 games, 46 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus Stevenage 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 50% | Stevenage 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.177 / defence 0.972 | Stevenage attack 0.731 / defence 1.104. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Stevenage's attack rating of 0.731 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.88. Data: built from Stockport County's last 92 games and Stevenage's last 92.
Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.71 | Draw 4.32 | Stevenage 5.44. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Stockport County 60% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Stockport County vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Semi-finals | Venue: Edgeley Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 13 May 2026 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Stockport County 1.77 / Stevenage 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Stockport County attack 1.177 / def 0.972 | Stevenage attack 0.731 / def 1.104 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Stockport County (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.77
Stockport County xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Stevenage xG
49%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Stockport County vs Stevenage FAQs
What time does Stockport County vs Stevenage kick off?
Stockport County vs Stevenage kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Wednesday 13 May 2026 at Edgeley Park.
What was the final score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Stockport County 2 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Stockport County vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Edgeley Park.
What competition is Stockport County vs Stevenage part of?
Stockport County vs Stevenage is a League One fixture (Semi-finals) (England).
Who is favourite to win Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Stockport County a 58% chance of winning, Stevenage a 18% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Stockport County the favourite.
Will both teams score in Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Stockport County and Stevenage will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Stockport County vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Stockport County's attack rating (1.18) and Stevenage's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.77 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.73x) against Stockport County's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Stockport County's last 92 games and Stevenage's last 92 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Stockport County Win
58%
1.71
23%
4.32
18%
5.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.77
Stockport County xG
Total xG
2.65
0.88
Stevenage xG
1.71
58%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.44
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
17%
5.88
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
31.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.5 | 11.0 | 4.8 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.7 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Stockport County vs Stevenage Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Stockport County and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.77 expected goals for Stockport County and 0.88 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Stockport County vs Stevenage?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 93 outings, Stockport County have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 46W 25D 22L record — L-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 36W 24D 33L from 93 games, 1.42 PPG, last five D-W-D-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Stockport County against 1.42 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Stockport County have posted 2.02 PPG from their last 46 home games (28W 9D 9L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 13W 12D 21L from their last 46 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Stockport County come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Stockport County are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 93 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Stockport County
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
Stockport County (Home) vs Stevenage (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Stockport County
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Stockport County vs Stevenage Form FAQs
What form are Stockport County and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Stockport County have gone 46W 25D 22L in their last 93 games (1.75 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 36W 24D 33L in their last 93 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Stockport County at home or Stevenage away?
Stockport County's home record (2.02 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Stockport County at home: 2.02 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Stockport County or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Stockport County have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Stevenage in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 8 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — League Two, League One. The most recent was on 13 May 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Stockport County have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Stockport County won Stockport County 3-0 Stevenage on 1 Apr 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Stockport County have gone 3W 0D 1L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Stockport County
0
Draws
4
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Stockport County vs Stevenage H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Stockport County and Stevenage?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Stockport County have won 4, Stevenage have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Stockport County and Stevenage last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 May 2026: Stockport County 2-0 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Stockport County are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Stockport County 59%, Stevenage 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Stockport County) and 37% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stockport County keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Stevenage in 35%; Stevenage in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Stockport County home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Stockport County vs Stevenage Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Stockport County and Stevenage matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Stockport County's recent matches and 41% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Stockport County and Stevenage matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Stockport County's recent games and 37% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Stockport County and Stevenage matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Stockport County's recent matches and 50% of Stevenage's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stockport County cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Stevenage.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stockport County beat Stevenage 2-0 at Edgeley Park, Semi-finals, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Stockport County 1.77 xG and Stevenage 0.88 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Stevenage landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Stockport County attack 1.18 / defence 0.97 against Stevenage attack 0.73 / defence 1.10, drawn from 92/92 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Stockport County 58% | Draw 23% | Stevenage 18%, with Stockport County to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Stockport County 50%, Stevenage 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Stockport County's trading profile (93 games, 46 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Stevenage's trading profile (93 games, 46 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Stockport County 1.75 PPG, Stevenage 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stockport County win broke the near-deadlock. Stockport County (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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