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Poisson rates Stevenage at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stevenage vs Stockport County encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stevenage and Stockport County meet at Lamex Stadium in League One, Semi-finals. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 9 May 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Current Form

Stevenage's overall League One record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stevenage have posted 8W 1D 1L at Lamex Stadium — 2.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lamex Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.80 — Stevenage are significantly better at Lamex Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Stockport County (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stockport County's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.80 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 4 wins for Stevenage, 2 for Stockport County and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Stevenage winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Stevenage — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Stockport County — key trading statistics (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stevenage 42% versus Stockport County 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stevenage 36% | Stockport County 51%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stevenage 1.26 xG and Stockport County 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stevenage attack 0.878 / defence 0.652 | Stockport County attack 1.118 / defence 1.052. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Stevenage's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 92 Stevenage games / 92 Stockport County games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stevenage 45% | Draw 29% | Stockport County 27%. Fair-value odds: Stevenage 2.22 | Draw 3.45 | Stockport County 3.70. Stevenage hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stevenage are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Stevenage if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.16 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates are neutral: Stevenage 40% | Stockport County 70%.

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