🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Bolton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bolton vs Bradford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Bolton host Bradford at Toughsheet Community Stadium in League One, Semi-finals. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 May 2026 at 20:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Bolton have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Bolton's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Toughsheet Community Stadium this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bolton are significantly better at Toughsheet Community Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Bradford — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Bradford away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bolton at 1.10 PPG versus Bradford's 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bolton have won 0, Bradford 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Bolton in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).

Bradford in-play and half-time data (92 games, 46 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bolton 61% versus Bradford 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bolton 53% | Bradford 49%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Bolton 2.15 xG and Bradford 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bolton attack 1.358 / defence 1.185 | Bradford attack 0.910 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.238. Bolton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 2.15 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 92 Bolton games / 46 Bradford games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Bolton 56% | Draw 21% | Bradford 23%. Fair-value odds: Bolton 1.79 | Draw 4.76 | Bradford 4.35. The model has a clear lean to Bolton (56%) — a 33pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.48. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.48 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.15 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Bolton as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.48 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 68% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bolton 90% | Bradford 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights