Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Burton Albion and Stevenage meet at Pirelli Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 15 August 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Burton Albion haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Burton Albion have posted 4W 3D 3L at Pirelli Stadium — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Stevenage haven't played a League One game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Stevenage's away record: 2W 2D 6L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Burton Albion, 1.50 for Stevenage — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Burton Albion, 2 for Stevenage and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Stevenage winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Burton Albion goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Stevenage goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 48% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 50% | Stevenage 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.953 / defence 0.959 | Stevenage attack 0.893 / defence 1.020. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.240. Data: 46 Burton Albion games / 46 Stevenage games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 45% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 28%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Stevenage 3.57. Burton Albion hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Burton Albion as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.49 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral: Burton Albion 60% | Stevenage 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (46 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Aug 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 45% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Burton Albion 1.43 / Stevenage 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.953 / def 0.959 | Stevenage attack 0.893 / def 1.020 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Stevenage xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Stevenage kick off?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 15 August 2026 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Burton Albion 1 - 1 Stevenage.
Where is Burton Albion vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Stevenage part of?
Burton Albion vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 45% chance of winning, Stevenage a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Burton Albion and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
Record (6 meetings): Burton Albion 2W | Draws 2 | Stevenage 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Burton Albion's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.02x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Stevenage's attack (0.89x) against Burton Albion's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
45%
2.20
27%
3.77
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.49
1.06
Stevenage xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.36
7%
14.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.06 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Burton Albion come into this having played 46 games, going 13W 15D 18L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. Burton Albion haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Stevenage sit at 1.50 PPG from 46 outings (19W 12D 15L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-L across their last five. Stevenage haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for Burton Albion against 1.50 for Stevenage. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Burton Albion's home form reads 9W 5D 9L across 23 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Stevenage have taken 1.00 points per game from 23 outings (6W 5D 12L). That's a step down from their 1.50 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Stevenage's season.
Attack vs Defence
Burton Albion are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 0.98 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Pre-Season
Stevenage
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 13W 15D 18L in their last 46 games (1.17 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 19W 12D 15L in their last 46 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Stevenage away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.39 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Stevenage in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Burton Albion have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Stevenage — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Burton Albion
3
Draws
2
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Stevenage?
From 7 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 2, Stevenage have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Burton Albion 1-1 Stevenage.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 39%, Stevenage 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Burton Albion) and 44% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Burton Albion have failed to score in 39% of games; Stevenage in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 48% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Burton Albion's recent games and 44% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Stevenage tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Stevenage share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Stevenage finished level at 1-1 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.43 xG and Stevenage 1.06 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.95 / defence 0.96 against Stevenage attack 0.89 / defence 1.02, drawn from 46/46 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 45% | Draw 27% | Stevenage 28%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Stevenage 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Stevenage's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.17 PPG, Stevenage 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.