Stockport County 3-1 Peterborough – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Stockport County at 58% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs Peterborough encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Stockport County and Peterborough meet at Edgeley Park in League One (matchday 45). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 25 April 2026 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

Stockport County (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

At home, Stockport County have gone 8W 1D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Stockport County are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Peterborough's record over their last 10 games: 1W 5D 4L (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D L L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

On the road, Peterborough have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form ledger tips toward Stockport County. A 0.70 PPG lead over Peterborough (1.50 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Stockport County, 1 for Peterborough and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 20 Nov 2025, ended Stockport County 0–3 Peterborough — a Peterborough win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Stockport County half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Peterborough half-time and goal-timing data (last 89 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Stockport County 57% and Peterborough 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 49% | Peterborough 60%). Note also that Peterborough surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Stockport County recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 50% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 1.89 xG and Peterborough 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.179 / defence 0.936 | Peterborough attack 0.923 / defence 1.180. League average goals — home 1.358 / away 1.166. Data: built from Stockport County's last 89 games and Peterborough's last 89.

Result probabilities: Stockport County 58% | Draw 22% | Peterborough 20%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.72 | Draw 4.50 | Peterborough 5.06. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (58%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Stockport County are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Stockport County's last 10 home games and Peterborough's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Stockport County 50% (last 10 home games) | Peterborough 70% (last 10 away games).

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