Peterborough 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Mansfield Town encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Mansfield Town in League One, Regular Season - 40. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Peterborough have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Weston Homes Stadium, Peterborough have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at Weston Homes Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 5D 1L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, Mansfield Town are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 10 Feb 2026, ended 2–1 with Peterborough winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 44 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (90 games, 44 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 64% and Mansfield Town 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Mansfield Town 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.27 xG and Mansfield Town 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.264 / defence 1.150 | Mansfield Town attack 1.004 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.181. Peterborough carry an above-average attack strength of 1.264 — their λ of 1.27 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Mansfield Town's defence strength of 0.731 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 90 Peterborough games / 90 Mansfield Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Peterborough 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Mansfield Town 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Peterborough 80% | Mansfield Town 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Mansfield Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 40 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Peterborough 1.27 / Mansfield Town 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.264 / def 1.150 | Mansfield Town attack 1.004 / def 0.731 | league avg home 1.372 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Mansfield Town (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Mansfield Town xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kick off?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 28 April 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Peterborough 0 - 0 Mansfield Town.
Where is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town part of?
Peterborough vs Mansfield Town is a Regular Season - 40 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 35% chance of winning, Mansfield Town a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Mansfield Town the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Peterborough and Mansfield Town will score (BTTS).
Will Peterborough vs Mansfield Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
Record (3 meetings): Peterborough 1W | Draws 0 | Mansfield Town 2W.
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in?
Peterborough (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-L-D-L. Mansfield Town (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Peterborough's attack at 1.26x the league average against Mansfield Town's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mansfield Town's attack (1.00x) against Peterborough's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.36.
These ratings are built from 90/90 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mansfield Town Win
35%
2.88
26%
3.82
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.63
1.36
Mansfield Town xG
2.88
35%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
26%
3.91
28%
3.55
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 9.8 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 12.4 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 7.9 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Mansfield Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.36 for Mansfield Town, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Mansfield Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Peterborough come into this having played 90 games, going 28W 19D 43L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-D-L.
On the other side, Mansfield Town sit at 1.28 PPG from 90 outings (30W 25D 35L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Peterborough against 1.28 for Mansfield Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Peterborough's home form reads 16W 12D 16L across 44 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Mansfield Town have taken 1.18 points per game from 44 outings (13W 13D 18L).
Attack vs Defence
Peterborough are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Mansfield Town are on 1.30 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 90 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Mansfield Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Peterborough and Mansfield Town in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 19D 43L in their last 90 games (1.14 PPG), while Mansfield Town have gone 30W 25D 35L in their last 90 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Mansfield Town away?
Peterborough's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.36 PPG; Mansfield Town away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Mansfield Town won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Mansfield Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Peterborough
1
Draws
2
Mansfield Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Mansfield Town?
From 5 meetings on record, Peterborough have won 2, Mansfield Town have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Mansfield Town last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Peterborough 2-1 Mansfield Town.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Mansfield Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 61%, Mansfield Town 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Peterborough) and 50% (Mansfield Town).
On the defensive side: Mansfield Town in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Mansfield Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Peterborough play Mansfield Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Peterborough's games and 57% of Mansfield Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Peterborough vs Mansfield Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Peterborough's recent games and 50% of Mansfield Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Mansfield Town tend to score early?
Peterborough have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Mansfield Town in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Peterborough's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Peterborough and Mansfield Town finished level at 0-0 at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 40, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.27 xG and Mansfield Town 1.36 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Peterborough fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Mansfield Town landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.26 / defence 1.15 against Mansfield Town attack 1.00 / defence 0.73, drawn from 90/90 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39%, with Mansfield Town to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Mansfield Town 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (90 games, 44 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Mansfield Town's trading profile (90 games, 44 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.14 PPG, Mansfield Town 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Peterborough (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Mansfield Town (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.