Shrewsbury 1-1 Fleetwood Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shrewsbury at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fleetwood Town make the trip to Montgomery Waters Meadow to face Shrewsbury in League One, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shrewsbury's overall League One record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Shrewsbury have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Shrewsbury are significantly better at Montgomery Waters Meadow than their overall form suggests.
Fleetwood Town have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W W L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in League One this season, Fleetwood Town have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.50 for Fleetwood Town. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Shrewsbury 1W, Fleetwood Town 0W, 0D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 1 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 26 Dec 2021, ended 3–0 with Shrewsbury winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Shrewsbury — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Fleetwood Town — key trading statistics (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 69% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shrewsbury 50% versus Fleetwood Town 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shrewsbury 39% | Fleetwood Town 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shrewsbury 1.34 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shrewsbury attack 0.834 / defence 0.905 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.765 / defence 1.454. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.260. Fleetwood Town bring a strong defensive rating of 1.454 — this is suppressing Shrewsbury's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Shrewsbury games / 28 Fleetwood Town games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 24%. Fair-value odds: Shrewsbury 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Fleetwood Town 4.17. Shrewsbury hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shrewsbury are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shrewsbury if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.21 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Shrewsbury 50% | Fleetwood Town 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Montgomery Waters Meadow • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Shrewsbury 1.34 / Fleetwood Town 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Shrewsbury attack 0.834 / def 0.905 | Fleetwood Town attack 0.765 / def 1.454 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Shrewsbury (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Shrewsbury xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Fleetwood Town xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town kick off?
Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What was the final score in Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town?
Shrewsbury 1 - 1 Fleetwood Town.
Where is Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town being played?
The match is being played at Montgomery Waters Meadow.
What competition is Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town part of?
Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town?
Our statistical model gives Shrewsbury a 47% chance of winning, Fleetwood Town a 24% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shrewsbury the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town will score (BTTS).
Will Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town?
Record (1 meetings): Shrewsbury 1W | Draws 0 | Fleetwood Town 0W.
What form are Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town in?
Shrewsbury (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Fleetwood Town (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Shrewsbury's attack rating (0.83) and Fleetwood Town's defence rating (1.45), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fleetwood Town's attack (0.77x) against Shrewsbury's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shrewsbury Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.54
24%
4.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Shrewsbury xG
Total xG
2.21
0.87
Fleetwood Town xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
4.12
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
6%
15.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.8 | 5.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Shrewsbury and 0.87 for Fleetwood Town, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Shrewsbury come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 8D 12L for 1.14 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D.
On the other side, Fleetwood Town sit at 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Shrewsbury against 1.07 for Fleetwood Town. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Shrewsbury's home form reads 7W 3D 3L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.85 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.14 PPG overall — Shrewsbury are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Fleetwood Town have taken 0.85 points per game from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shrewsbury come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Shrewsbury are averaging 0.96 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Fleetwood Town are on 1.50 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fleetwood Town in 64%.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shrewsbury
Current Season
Fleetwood Town
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town in coming into this match?
Shrewsbury have gone 8W 8D 12L in their last 28 games (1.14 PPG), while Fleetwood Town have gone 7W 9D 12L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shrewsbury at home or Fleetwood Town away?
Shrewsbury's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shrewsbury at home: 1.85 PPG; Fleetwood Town away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, League Two all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shrewsbury won 0-3 on 26 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shrewsbury have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fleetwood Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Shrewsbury
2
Draws
2
Fleetwood Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town?
From 8 meetings on record, Shrewsbury have won 4, Fleetwood Town have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Shrewsbury 2-2 Fleetwood Town.
Who has won more matches between Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Shrewsbury are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Fleetwood Town are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shrewsbury 54%, Fleetwood Town 69% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Shrewsbury) and 62% (Fleetwood Town).
On the defensive side: Shrewsbury keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shrewsbury home games / Fleetwood Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shrewsbury play Fleetwood Town?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Shrewsbury's games and 69% of Fleetwood Town's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shrewsbury vs Fleetwood Town usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Shrewsbury's recent games and 62% of Fleetwood Town's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town tend to score early?
Shrewsbury have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fleetwood Town in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shrewsbury and Fleetwood Town finished level at 1-1 at Montgomery Waters Meadow, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shrewsbury 1.34 xG and Fleetwood Town 0.87 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shrewsbury attack 0.83 / defence 0.91 against Fleetwood Town attack 0.77 / defence 1.45, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shrewsbury 47% | Draw 28% | Fleetwood Town 24%, with Shrewsbury to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shrewsbury 39%, Fleetwood Town 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shrewsbury's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Fleetwood Town's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shrewsbury 1.14 PPG, Fleetwood Town 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fleetwood Town (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.