Morecambe 1-1 Bolton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Morecambe at 38%, yet in-form Bolton provide a compelling counter-argument — this Morecambe vs Bolton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 31 as Morecambe welcome Bolton to Mazuma Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Morecambe have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Morecambe's home record at Mazuma Stadium: 3W 3D 4L from 10 League One appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bolton stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 League One matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Bolton's away record: 2W 0D 8L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Bolton's 1.60 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Morecambe's 0.90 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Morecambe in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bolton in-play tendencies (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Morecambe 57% versus Bolton 32%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Morecambe 61% | Bolton 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Morecambe 1.39 xG and Bolton 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Morecambe attack 1.082 / defence 1.497 | Bolton attack 0.704 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.260. Data: 29 Morecambe games / 28 Bolton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Morecambe 38% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36%. Fair-value odds: Morecambe 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Bolton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Morecambe are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Bolton (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Morecambe offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.71 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Morecambe 60% | Bolton 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Morecambe vs Bolton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Mazuma Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Morecambe 38% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Morecambe 1.39 / Bolton 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Morecambe attack 1.082 / def 1.497 | Bolton attack 0.704 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Morecambe (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Morecambe xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Bolton xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Morecambe vs Bolton kick off?
Morecambe vs Bolton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at Mazuma Stadium.
What was the final score in Morecambe vs Bolton?
Morecambe 1 - 1 Bolton.
Where is Morecambe vs Bolton being played?
The match is being played at Mazuma Stadium.
What competition is Morecambe vs Bolton part of?
Morecambe vs Bolton is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Morecambe vs Bolton?
Our statistical model gives Morecambe a 38% chance of winning, Bolton a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Morecambe the favourite.
Will both teams score in Morecambe vs Bolton?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Morecambe and Bolton will score (BTTS).
Will Morecambe vs Bolton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Bolton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Morecambe and Bolton in?
Morecambe (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. Bolton (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Morecambe's attack at 1.08x the league average against Bolton's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Bolton's attack versus Morecambe's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Morecambe Win
38%
2.60
26%
3.85
36%
2.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Morecambe xG
Total xG
2.71
1.33
Bolton xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.81
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.23
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
10%
9.82
9%
11.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 8.8 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.2 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Morecambe vs Bolton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Morecambe and Bolton expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Morecambe and 1.33 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Morecambe vs Bolton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Morecambe come into this having played 28 games, going 7W 6D 15L for 0.96 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Bolton sit at 1.36 PPG from 28 outings (11W 5D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Bolton carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.40 PPG clear of Morecambe — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Morecambe's home form reads 4W 4D 6L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Bolton have taken 0.93 points per game from 14 outings (4W 1D 9L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bolton's season.
The Goals Picture
Morecambe are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; Bolton are on 1.46 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Morecambe
Current Season
Bolton
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Morecambe and Bolton in coming into this match?
Morecambe have gone 7W 6D 15L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Bolton have gone 11W 5D 12L in their last 28 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Morecambe at home or Bolton away?
Morecambe's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Morecambe at home: 1.14 PPG; Bolton away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Morecambe and Bolton runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Morecambe's record when hosting Bolton specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Morecambe
3
Draws
1
Bolton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Morecambe and Bolton?
From 4 meetings on record, Morecambe have won 0, Bolton have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Morecambe and Bolton last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2023, when Morecambe 0-0 Bolton.
Who has won more matches between Morecambe and Bolton?
Bolton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Morecambe are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bolton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Morecambe 57%, Bolton 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Morecambe) and 43% (Bolton).
On the defensive side: Morecambe have failed to score in 29% of games; Bolton in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Morecambe home games / Bolton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Morecambe play Bolton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Morecambe's recent matches and 29% of Bolton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Morecambe vs Bolton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Morecambe's recent games and 43% of Bolton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Morecambe and Bolton tend to score early?
Morecambe have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Bolton in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Morecambe and Bolton share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Mazuma Stadium, Regular Season - 31, as Morecambe and Bolton drew 1-1 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Morecambe 1.39 xG and Bolton 1.33 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Morecambe attack 1.08 / defence 1.50 against Bolton attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 29/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Morecambe 38% | Draw 26% | Bolton 36%, with Morecambe to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Morecambe 61%, Bolton 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Morecambe's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Bolton's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bolton arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Morecambe (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.