AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as AFC Wimbledon take on Shrewsbury.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
AFC Wimbledon host Shrewsbury at The Cherry Red Records Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L D D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for AFC Wimbledon, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AFC Wimbledon's home record at The Cherry Red Records Stadium: 2W 5D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Shrewsbury — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in League One this season, Shrewsbury have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — AFC Wimbledon at 1.10 PPG versus Shrewsbury's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Shrewsbury 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Shrewsbury winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
AFC Wimbledon trading profile (26 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Shrewsbury trading profile (26 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AFC Wimbledon 54% versus Shrewsbury 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AFC Wimbledon 50% | Shrewsbury 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AFC Wimbledon 0.84 xG and Shrewsbury 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.737 / defence 1.175 | Shrewsbury attack 0.580 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.104 / away 1.232. AFC Wimbledon's attack strength of 0.737 is below the league average — the 0.84 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 26 AFC Wimbledon games / 28 Shrewsbury games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 33%. Fair-value odds: AFC Wimbledon 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Shrewsbury 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.68. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.68 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Shrewsbury's lower xG of 0.84 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.68 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates are neutral: AFC Wimbledon 50% | Shrewsbury 50%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: The Cherry Red Records Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 32% | xG AFC Wimbledon 0.84 / Shrewsbury 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: AFC Wimbledon attack 0.737 / def 1.175 | Shrewsbury attack 0.580 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.104 / away 1.232 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
AFC Wimbledon xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Shrewsbury xG
32%
BTTS
50%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury kick off?
AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What was the final score in AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury?
AFC Wimbledon 1 - 1 Shrewsbury.
Where is AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at The Cherry Red Records Stadium.
What competition is AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury part of?
AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives AFC Wimbledon a 33% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury?
Record (1 meetings): AFC Wimbledon 0W | Draws 0 | Shrewsbury 1W.
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury in?
AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-L. Shrewsbury (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from AFC Wimbledon's attack rating (0.74) and Shrewsbury's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 0.84 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus AFC Wimbledon's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.04
34%
2.92
33%
3.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.7%
Home win
0 – 1
15.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
AFC Wimbledon xG
Total xG
1.68
0.84
Shrewsbury xG
3.04
33%
Home win
2.92
34%
Draw
3.05
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
43%
2.32
Win to Nil
14%
7.03
14%
7.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.6 | 15.6 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.7 | 13.2 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.3%.
How many goals are AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for AFC Wimbledon and 0.84 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 1.68.
How confident is the prediction model for AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
AFC Wimbledon's recent record stands at 6W 10D 10L from 26 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with L-D-D-D-L in the last five. The sample for AFC Wimbledon is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Shrewsbury, meanwhile, have gone 8W 7D 11L across 26 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Shrewsbury is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: AFC Wimbledon on 1.08 PPG, Shrewsbury on 1.19. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, AFC Wimbledon have managed 2W 7D 3L from 12 games — 1.08 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shrewsbury's away record stands at 1W 4D 7L across 12 trips, a 0.58 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.19 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Shrewsbury's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AFC Wimbledon come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AFC Wimbledon are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 1.00 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Last 26 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AFC Wimbledon
Blended
Shrewsbury
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 10D 10L in their last 26 games (1.08 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 8W 7D 11L in their last 26 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AFC Wimbledon at home or Shrewsbury away?
AFC Wimbledon's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AFC Wimbledon at home: 1.08 PPG; Shrewsbury away: 0.58 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 January 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
AFC Wimbledon
1
Draws
1
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury?
From 2 meetings on record, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, Shrewsbury have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 29 January 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury?
Shrewsbury have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Shrewsbury see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AFC Wimbledon 58%, Shrewsbury 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (AFC Wimbledon) and 42% (Shrewsbury).
On the defensive side: AFC Wimbledon have failed to score in 42% of games; Shrewsbury in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AFC Wimbledon home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AFC Wimbledon play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of AFC Wimbledon's recent matches and 50% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AFC Wimbledon vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of AFC Wimbledon's recent games and 42% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AFC Wimbledon and Shrewsbury finished level at 1-1 at The Cherry Red Records Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AFC Wimbledon 0.84 xG and Shrewsbury 0.84 xG, a combined 1.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AFC Wimbledon attack 0.74 / defence 1.18 against Shrewsbury attack 0.58 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AFC Wimbledon 33% | Draw 34% | Shrewsbury 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 50% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AFC Wimbledon 50%, Shrewsbury 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (26 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Shrewsbury's trading profile (26 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AFC Wimbledon 1.08 PPG, Shrewsbury 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.