Charlton 3-2 AFC Wimbledon – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Charlton and AFC Wimbledon meet at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 February 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Charlton (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 League One fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Charlton's home record at The Valley: 5W 2D 3L from 10 League One appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The Valley.
AFC Wimbledon's overall League One record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, AFC Wimbledon have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Charlton — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
AFC Wimbledon — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 54% versus AFC Wimbledon 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 46% | AFC Wimbledon 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.071 / defence 0.931 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.755 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.260. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Charlton's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Charlton games / 28 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | AFC Wimbledon 4.55. Charlton hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Charlton if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Charlton 40% | AFC Wimbledon 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Feb 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Charlton 1.49 / AFC Wimbledon 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.071 / def 0.931 | AFC Wimbledon attack 0.755 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.260 • Poisson stance: Charlton (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.89
AFC Wimbledon xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon kick off?
Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 5 February 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Charlton 3 - 2 AFC Wimbledon.
Where is Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon part of?
Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 51% chance of winning, AFC Wimbledon a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Charlton and AFC Wimbledon will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and AFC Wimbledon?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Charlton and AFC Wimbledon in?
Charlton (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W. AFC Wimbledon (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.07x the league average against AFC Wimbledon's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AFC Wimbledon's attack (0.76x) against Charlton's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.89.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 0-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
51%
1.96
27%
3.77
22%
4.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.37
0.89
AFC Wimbledon xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
4.48
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
5%
19.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.9 | 12.3 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Charlton and AFC Wimbledon expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Charlton and 0.89 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Charlton's recent record stands at 10W 6D 12L from 28 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-W in the last five.
AFC Wimbledon, meanwhile, have gone 6W 12D 10L across 28 games — 1.07 PPG, with D-D-L-D-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for Charlton against 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Charlton have managed 6W 3D 5L from 14 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AFC Wimbledon's away record stands at 4W 3D 7L across 14 trips, a 1.07 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Charlton are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; AFC Wimbledon are on 1.21 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 28 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Current Season
AFC Wimbledon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and AFC Wimbledon in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while AFC Wimbledon have gone 6W 12D 10L in their last 28 (1.07 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or AFC Wimbledon away?
Charlton's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.50 PPG; AFC Wimbledon away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Charlton or AFC Wimbledon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Charlton have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AFC Wimbledon in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to February 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Charlton
1
Draws
0
AFC Wimbledon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and AFC Wimbledon?
From 2 meetings on record, Charlton have won 1, AFC Wimbledon have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and AFC Wimbledon last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2022, when AFC Wimbledon 1-1 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Charlton and AFC Wimbledon?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
AFC Wimbledon see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 36%, AFC Wimbledon 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Charlton) and 57% (AFC Wimbledon).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; AFC Wimbledon in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / AFC Wimbledon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play AFC Wimbledon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Charlton's recent matches and 50% of AFC Wimbledon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs AFC Wimbledon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Charlton's recent games and 57% of AFC Wimbledon's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and AFC Wimbledon tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, AFC Wimbledon in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Charlton edge out AFC Wimbledon 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Charlton beat AFC Wimbledon 3-2 at The Valley, Regular Season - 31, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.49 xG and AFC Wimbledon 0.89 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Charlton beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AFC Wimbledon outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.07 / defence 0.93 against AFC Wimbledon attack 0.76 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 51% | Draw 27% | AFC Wimbledon 22%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 46%, AFC Wimbledon 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
AFC Wimbledon's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.29 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.07 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Charlton win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AFC Wimbledon (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.57 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.