Rotherham 1-0 Plymouth – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Plymouth at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rotherham vs Plymouth encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Rotherham and Plymouth meet at Aesseal New York Stadium in League One (matchday 35). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UK time.

Current Form

Rotherham's record over their last 10 games: 2W 1D 7L (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

In front of their own supporters, Rotherham have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Plymouth (all games): 6W 2D 2L across their last 10 — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Plymouth have posted 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

Plymouth arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.70) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Plymouth edge it 3 wins to 2, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.

The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Dec 2025, ended Rotherham 0–1 Plymouth — a Plymouth win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading

Rotherham half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 48%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

Plymouth half-time and goal-timing data (last 78 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 30 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rotherham 49% versus Plymouth 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rotherham 49% | Plymouth 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Rotherham 0.96 xG and Plymouth 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rotherham attack 0.765 / defence 1.345 | Plymouth attack 1.336 / defence 0.877. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.147. Rotherham's attack rating of 0.765 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.96. Plymouth have an above-average attack rating of 1.336, which lifts their away xG to 2.06. Rotherham's defence rating of 1.345 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Plymouth's projected output up. Data: built from Rotherham's last 78 games and Plymouth's last 33.

Result probabilities: Rotherham 17% | Draw 20% | Plymouth 63%. Fair-value odds: Rotherham 5.99 | Draw 4.89 | Plymouth 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Plymouth (63%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rotherham's last 10 home games and Plymouth's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rotherham 60% (last 10 home games) | Plymouth 50% (last 10 away games).

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