🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Mansfield Town at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mansfield Town vs AFC Wimbledon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Match Analysis

Mansfield Town host AFC Wimbledon at One Call Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Mansfield Town stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

In front of their own supporters this season, Mansfield Town have posted 3W 2D 5L at One Call Stadium — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at One Call Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Across all League One games this season, AFC Wimbledon have recorded 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Mansfield Town 1.30 PPG, AFC Wimbledon 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Mansfield Town have won 2, AFC Wimbledon 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Mansfield Town trading profile (77 games, 39 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).

AFC Wimbledon trading profile (77 games, 39 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mansfield Town 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Mansfield Town 56% | AFC Wimbledon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Mansfield Town 1.58 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mansfield Town attack 0.842 / defence 0.948 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.012 / defence 1.311. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.147. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.311 — this is suppressing Mansfield Town's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 77 Mansfield Town games / 32 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Mansfield Town 48% | Draw 25% | AFC Wimbledon 27%. Fair-value odds: Mansfield Town 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | AFC Wimbledon 3.70. Mansfield Town hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Mansfield Town are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Mansfield Town 30% | AFC Wimbledon 60%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights