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Poisson rates Peterborough at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Northampton vs Peterborough encounter.

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Match Analysis

Northampton host Peterborough at Sixfields Stadium in League One, Regular Season - 35. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 28 February 2026 at 12:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Northampton have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Northampton's home record at Sixfields Stadium: 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One appearances (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Northampton are significantly better at Sixfields Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Peterborough stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Peterborough's form when playing away from home: 5W 0D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Peterborough — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.30 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Northampton, 2 for Peterborough and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Peterborough winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Northampton trading profile (80 games, 40 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Peterborough trading profile (80 games, 40 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Northampton 49% versus Peterborough 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Northampton 46% | Peterborough 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Northampton 1.13 xG and Peterborough 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Northampton attack 0.782 / defence 1.127 | Peterborough attack 1.015 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.433 / away 1.140. Northampton's attack strength of 0.782 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 80 Northampton games / 80 Peterborough games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Northampton 32% | Draw 27% | Peterborough 41%. Fair-value odds: Northampton 3.12 | Draw 3.70 | Peterborough 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Peterborough offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Northampton 70% | Peterborough 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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