Port Vale 1-0 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Port Vale at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Port Vale vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Vale Park plays host to Port Vale versus Charlton in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Saturday 19 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Port Vale have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Port Vale, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Port Vale at Vale Park this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Charlton's overall League One record this term: 3W 5D 2L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L D D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.60. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in League One this season, Charlton have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Port Vale against 1.40 for Charlton. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Port Vale goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Charlton goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Port Vale 55% versus Charlton 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Port Vale 50% | Charlton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Port Vale 1.38 xG and Charlton 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Port Vale attack 0.928 / defence 1.113 | Charlton attack 0.975 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.245. Data: 18 Port Vale games / 64 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Port Vale 38% | Draw 26% | Charlton 36%. Fair-value odds: Port Vale 2.63 | Draw 3.85 | Charlton 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Port Vale as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Port Vale if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Port Vale 50% | Charlton 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Port Vale vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Vale Park • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Port Vale 38% | Draw 26% | Charlton 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 56% | xG Port Vale 1.38 / Charlton 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Port Vale attack 0.928 / def 1.113 | Charlton attack 0.975 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Port Vale (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Port Vale xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Charlton xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Port Vale vs Charlton kick off?
Port Vale vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 19 November 2022 at Vale Park.
What was the final score in Port Vale vs Charlton?
Port Vale 1 - 0 Charlton.
Where is Port Vale vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Vale Park.
What competition is Port Vale vs Charlton part of?
Port Vale vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Port Vale a 38% chance of winning, Charlton a 36% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Port Vale the favourite.
Will both teams score in Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Port Vale and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Port Vale vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Charlton?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Port Vale and Charlton in?
Port Vale (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Port Vale's attack at 0.93x the league average against Charlton's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Charlton's attack (0.97x) against Port Vale's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 18/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Port Vale Win
38%
2.64
26%
3.88
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
0 – 1
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Port Vale xG
Total xG
2.73
1.35
Charlton xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
10%
10.20
9%
10.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 8.4 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Port Vale vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Port Vale and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Port Vale and 1.35 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Port Vale vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 64 outings, Port Vale have picked up 1.64 PPG on a 30W 15D 19L record — W-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Port Vale is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Charlton's form line: 22W 17D 25L from 64 games, 1.30 PPG, last five W-W-L-D-D. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.64 PPG for Port Vale against 1.30 for Charlton. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Port Vale have posted 1.68 PPG from 31 outings (15W 7D 9L).
On the road, Charlton have gone 8W 9D 14L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Port Vale come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Port Vale are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.33 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Port Vale
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Port Vale and Charlton in coming into this match?
Port Vale have gone 30W 15D 19L in their last 64 games (1.64 PPG), while Charlton have gone 22W 17D 25L in their last 64 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Port Vale at home or Charlton away?
Port Vale's home record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Port Vale at home: 1.68 PPG; Charlton away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Port Vale or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Port Vale have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Charlton in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 January 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Port Vale have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Charlton — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Port Vale
1
Draws
1
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Port Vale and Charlton?
From 4 meetings on record, Port Vale have won 2, Charlton have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Port Vale and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2024, when Port Vale 3-3 Charlton.
Who has won more matches between Port Vale and Charlton?
Port Vale have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Port Vale are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Port Vale 52%, Charlton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Port Vale) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Port Vale keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Port Vale home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Port Vale play Charlton?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Port Vale's games and 61% of Charlton's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Port Vale vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Port Vale's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Port Vale and Charlton tend to score early?
Port Vale have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Port Vale edge out Charlton 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Port Vale beat Charlton 1-0 at Vale Park, Regular Season - 19, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Port Vale 1.38 xG and Charlton 1.35 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Charlton landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Port Vale attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 0.97 / defence 1.15, drawn from 18/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Port Vale 38% | Draw 26% | Charlton 36%, with Port Vale to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Port Vale 50%, Charlton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Port Vale's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Charlton's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Port Vale 1.64 PPG, Charlton 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Port Vale win broke the near-deadlock. Port Vale (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.