Portsmouth 0-0 Derby – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Portsmouth at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Portsmouth vs Derby fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Fratton Park plays host to Portsmouth versus Derby in League One, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 18 November 2022 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Portsmouth have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 League One outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Portsmouth, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Portsmouth's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Fratton Park this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Portsmouth are significantly better at Fratton Park than their overall form suggests.
Derby (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 League One outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Derby, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Derby have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.40 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading
Portsmouth half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Derby half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Portsmouth 52% versus Derby 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Portsmouth 52% | Derby 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.25 xG and Derby 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.148 / defence 0.906 | Derby attack 0.910 / defence 0.830. League average goals — home 1.313 / away 1.252. Data: 62 Portsmouth games / 17 Derby games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 41% | Draw 28% | Derby 30%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 2.44 | Draw 3.57 | Derby 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Portsmouth if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.28 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates are neutral: Portsmouth 90% | Derby 20%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Derby | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Nov 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 41% | Draw 28% | Derby 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Portsmouth 1.25 / Derby 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.148 / def 0.906 | Derby attack 0.910 / def 0.830 | league avg home 1.313 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Derby xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Derby kick off?
Portsmouth vs Derby kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 18 November 2022 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Portsmouth 0 - 0 Derby.
Where is Portsmouth vs Derby being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Derby part of?
Portsmouth vs Derby is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 41% chance of winning, Derby a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Portsmouth and Derby will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Derby have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Derby (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Portsmouth's attack rating (1.15) and Derby's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derby's attack (0.91x) against Portsmouth's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 62/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
41%
2.42
28%
3.54
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.28
1.03
Derby xG
2.42
41%
Home win
3.54
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
15%
6.79
9%
11.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.5 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.2 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Derby expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Portsmouth and 1.03 for Derby, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Derby?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Portsmouth's recent record stands at 27W 20D 15L from 62 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with L-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Portsmouth is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Derby, meanwhile, have gone 22W 16D 24L across 62 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-D-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Derby is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Portsmouth against 1.32 for Derby. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Portsmouth have managed 17W 10D 4L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Derby's away record stands at 6W 9D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.87 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Derby's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Portsmouth come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Portsmouth are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Derby are on 1.08 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Blended
Derby
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Derby in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 27W 20D 15L in their last 62 games (1.63 PPG), while Derby have gone 22W 16D 24L in their last 62 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Portsmouth at home or Derby away?
Portsmouth's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Portsmouth at home: 1.97 PPG; Derby away: 0.87 PPG.
Have Portsmouth or Derby been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Derby in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — League One, Championship all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Derby won 4-0 on 13 Dec 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Portsmouth have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Derby — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Portsmouth
6
Draws
2
Derby
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Derby?
From 8 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 0, Derby have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Derby last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Portsmouth 0-1 Derby.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Derby?
Derby have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Portsmouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Derby see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Portsmouth 61%, Derby 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Portsmouth) and 29% (Derby).
On the defensive side: Portsmouth keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Derby in 52%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Derby away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Derby?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 36% of Derby's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Derby usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Portsmouth's recent games and 29% of Derby's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Derby tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Derby in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Portsmouth's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 19, as Portsmouth and Derby drew 0-0 in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.25 xG and Derby 1.03 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Portsmouth fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Derby landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.15 / defence 0.91 against Derby attack 0.91 / defence 0.83, drawn from 62/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 41% | Draw 28% | Derby 30%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 52%, Derby 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Portsmouth's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Derby's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Portsmouth 1.63 PPG, Derby 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Portsmouth (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Derby (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.13 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.