Burton Albion 3-3 Charlton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Charlton at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Charlton fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 18 as Burton Albion welcome Charlton to Pirelli Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Burton Albion stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 League One matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Burton Albion, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Pirelli Stadium, Burton Albion have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all League One games this season, Charlton have recorded 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Charlton's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in League One this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (Burton Albion) versus 1.40 (Charlton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Burton Albion, 2 for Charlton and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Charlton winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Burton Albion in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Charlton in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Burton Albion 52% versus Charlton 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Burton Albion 49% | Charlton 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 0.95 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 0.736 / defence 1.108 | Charlton attack 0.833 / defence 0.988. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.243. Burton Albion's attack strength of 0.736 is below the league average — the 0.95 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 63 Burton Albion games / 63 Charlton games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 30% | Charlton 40%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 3.33 | Draw 3.33 | Charlton 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Charlton are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Charlton offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Burton Albion 30% | Charlton 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Charlton | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 30% | Draw 30% | Charlton 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Burton Albion 0.95 / Charlton 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 0.736 / def 1.108 | Charlton attack 0.833 / def 0.988 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.243 • Poisson stance: Charlton (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Charlton xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Charlton kick off?
Burton Albion vs Charlton kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Burton Albion 3 - 3 Charlton.
Where is Burton Albion vs Charlton being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Charlton part of?
Burton Albion vs Charlton is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 30% chance of winning, Charlton a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Burton Albion and Charlton will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Charlton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Record (2 meetings): Burton Albion 0W | Draws 0 | Charlton 2W.
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Charlton (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Burton Albion's attack at 0.74x the league average against Charlton's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Charlton's attack versus Burton Albion's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 0-1 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
30%
3.33
30%
3.36
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.09
1.15
Charlton xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
10%
10.48
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.1 | 8.1 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Charlton expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.15 for Charlton, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Charlton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Burton Albion come into this having played 63 games, going 17W 14D 32L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-L-L. The sample for Burton Albion is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Charlton sit at 1.30 PPG from 63 outings (22W 16D 25L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Burton Albion on 1.03 PPG, Charlton on 1.30. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Burton Albion's home form reads 12W 7D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Charlton have taken 1.03 points per game from 31 outings (8W 8D 15L).
Goals in Recent Form
Burton Albion are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Charlton are on 1.30 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 63 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Blended
Charlton
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Charlton in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 17W 14D 32L in their last 63 games (1.03 PPG), while Charlton have gone 22W 16D 25L in their last 63 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Burton Albion at home or Charlton away?
Burton Albion's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Burton Albion at home: 1.39 PPG; Charlton away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Burton Albion or Charlton been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Charlton in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Charlton have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Burton Albion's record when hosting Charlton specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
2
Draws
5
Charlton
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Charlton?
From 8 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Charlton have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Charlton last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2025, when Charlton 3-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Charlton?
Charlton have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Burton Albion are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Burton Albion 48%, Charlton 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Burton Albion) and 48% (Charlton).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Charlton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Charlton?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Burton Albion's recent matches and 61% of Charlton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Burton Albion vs Charlton usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Burton Albion's recent games and 48% of Charlton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Burton Albion and Charlton tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Charlton in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Burton Albion and Charlton share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion and Charlton finished level at 3-3 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 0.95 xG and Charlton 1.15 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Burton Albion beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Charlton outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 0.74 / defence 1.11 against Charlton attack 0.83 / defence 0.99, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 30% | Draw 30% | Charlton 40%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 49%, Charlton 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Burton Albion's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Charlton's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 1.03 PPG, Charlton 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Burton Albion (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Charlton (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.