Charlton 0-1 Cheltenham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Charlton at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Charlton vs Cheltenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Charlton host Cheltenham at The Valley in League One, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 December 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Charlton stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 League One matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Charlton, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at The Valley, Charlton have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Charlton are significantly better at The Valley than their overall form suggests.
Cheltenham — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Cheltenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Charlton 1.30 PPG, Cheltenham 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Charlton, 1 for Cheltenham and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Charlton in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Cheltenham in-play tendencies (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Charlton 53% versus Cheltenham 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Charlton 45% | Cheltenham 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Charlton 1.76 xG and Cheltenham 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Charlton attack 1.358 / defence 1.090 | Cheltenham attack 0.735 / defence 1.003. League average goals — home 1.295 / away 1.221. Charlton carry an above-average attack strength of 1.358 — their λ of 1.76 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 65 Charlton games / 64 Cheltenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Charlton 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%. Fair-value odds: Charlton 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Cheltenham 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Charlton (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Charlton as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Charlton 60% | Cheltenham 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Charlton vs Cheltenham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: The Valley • Kick-off: Friday 2 Dec 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Charlton 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 52% | xG Charlton 1.76 / Cheltenham 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Charlton attack 1.358 / def 1.090 | Cheltenham attack 0.735 / def 1.003 | league avg home 1.295 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Charlton (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Charlton xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Cheltenham xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Charlton vs Cheltenham kick off?
Charlton vs Cheltenham kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 December 2022 at The Valley.
What was the final score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Charlton 0 - 1 Cheltenham.
Where is Charlton vs Cheltenham being played?
The match is being played at The Valley.
What competition is Charlton vs Cheltenham part of?
Charlton vs Cheltenham is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our statistical model gives Charlton a 56% chance of winning, Cheltenham a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Charlton the favourite.
Will both teams score in Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Charlton and Cheltenham will score (BTTS).
Will Charlton vs Cheltenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
Record (2 meetings): Charlton 0W | Draws 1 | Cheltenham 1W.
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in?
Charlton (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Cheltenham (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Charlton's attack at 1.36x the league average against Cheltenham's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cheltenham's attack versus Charlton's defence, projects 0.98 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.0%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Charlton Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.28
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
2 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Charlton xG
Total xG
2.74
0.98
Cheltenham xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
17%
5.83
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
4%
28.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 11.1 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Charlton and Cheltenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Charlton and 0.98 for Cheltenham, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Charlton vs Cheltenham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 64 outings, Charlton have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 22W 16D 26L record — W-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Charlton is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cheltenham's form line: 19W 21D 24L from 64 games, 1.22 PPG, last five L-W-D-D-W. The sample for Cheltenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Charlton on 1.28 PPG, Cheltenham on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Charlton have posted 1.58 PPG from 31 outings (14W 7D 10L).
On the road, Cheltenham have gone 4W 13D 14L from 31 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.22 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cheltenham's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Charlton come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Charlton are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Cheltenham are on 1.27 scored and 1.58 conceded.
Last 64 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Charlton
Blended
Cheltenham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Charlton and Cheltenham in coming into this match?
Charlton have gone 22W 16D 26L in their last 64 games (1.28 PPG), while Cheltenham have gone 19W 21D 24L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Charlton at home or Cheltenham away?
Charlton's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Charlton at home: 1.58 PPG; Cheltenham away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Charlton and Cheltenham runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Charlton go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Charlton's record when hosting Cheltenham specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Charlton
2
Draws
2
Cheltenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Charlton and Cheltenham?
From 6 meetings on record, Charlton have won 2, Cheltenham have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Charlton and Cheltenham last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2024, when Cheltenham 1-3 Charlton.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Charlton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Cheltenham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Charlton 45%, Cheltenham 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Charlton) and 52% (Cheltenham).
On the defensive side: Charlton keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Cheltenham in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Charlton home games / Cheltenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Charlton play Cheltenham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Charlton's recent matches and 58% of Cheltenham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Charlton vs Cheltenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Charlton's recent games and 52% of Cheltenham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Charlton and Cheltenham tend to score early?
Charlton have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Cheltenham in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cheltenham defy the odds to beat Charlton 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cheltenham beat Charlton 0-1 at The Valley, Regular Season - 20, in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Charlton 1.76 xG and Cheltenham 0.98 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Charlton fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Charlton attack 1.36 / defence 1.09 against Cheltenham attack 0.73 / defence 1.00, drawn from 65/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Charlton 56% | Draw 23% | Cheltenham 21%, with Charlton to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Cheltenham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Charlton 45%, Cheltenham 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Charlton's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Cheltenham's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Charlton 1.28 PPG, Cheltenham 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cheltenham win broke the near-deadlock. Charlton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward. Cheltenham (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.