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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Stevenage 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Stevenage 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.56 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.28 against Stevenage attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/82 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Stevenage 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Stevenage's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.21 PPG, Stevenage 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights