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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.80 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plymouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stevenage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Plymouth, 0 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Plymouth in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Stevenage in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Stevenage 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.56 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.028 / defence 1.281 | Stevenage attack 0.841 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Data: 37 Plymouth games / 82 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Stevenage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Stevenage 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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