Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Plymouth at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Plymouth vs Stevenage fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park in League One, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Plymouth have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Plymouth at Home Park this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Stevenage — All Games: 6W 0D 4L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Stevenage away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.80 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Plymouth register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Stevenage in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Plymouth, 0 for Stevenage and 1 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Jan 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Plymouth in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Stevenage in-play and half-time data (82 games, 41 at away): they score before half-time in 51% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Stevenage 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.56 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.028 / defence 1.281 | Stevenage attack 0.841 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Data: 37 Plymouth games / 82 Stevenage games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.27 | Draw 4.00 | Stevenage 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Plymouth 60% | Stevenage 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Stevenage | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Plymouth 1.56 / Stevenage 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 1.028 / def 1.281 | Stevenage attack 0.841 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.170 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Stevenage xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Stevenage kick off?
Plymouth vs Stevenage kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Stevenage.
Where is Plymouth vs Stevenage being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Stevenage part of?
Plymouth vs Stevenage is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 44% chance of winning, Stevenage a 31% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Plymouth and Stevenage will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Stevenage have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
Record (1 meetings): Plymouth 0W | Draws 1 | Stevenage 0W.
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in?
Plymouth (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-D. Stevenage (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Plymouth's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Stevenage's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. The same calculation in reverse, Stevenage's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 1.26 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/82 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (7.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
44%
2.25
25%
4.03
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.83
1.26
Stevenage xG
2.25
44%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
21%
4.78
Win to Nil
13%
7.93
6%
15.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 7.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Stevenage expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.26 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Stevenage?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 82 outings, Plymouth have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 27W 18D 37L record — W-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Stevenage's form line: 31W 21D 30L from 82 games, 1.39 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Plymouth on 1.21 PPG, Stevenage on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Plymouth have posted 1.41 PPG from 41 outings (16W 10D 15L).
On the road, Stevenage have gone 12W 10D 19L from 41 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Plymouth are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Stevenage are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Stevenage in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 82 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Current Season
Stevenage
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Stevenage in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 27W 18D 37L in their last 82 games (1.21 PPG), while Stevenage have gone 31W 21D 30L in their last 82 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Plymouth at home or Stevenage away?
Plymouth's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Plymouth at home: 1.41 PPG; Stevenage away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Plymouth or Stevenage been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Stevenage in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to January 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Plymouth
1
Draws
0
Stevenage
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Stevenage?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Stevenage have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Stevenage last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Stevenage?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Plymouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Stevenage see a goal before the break in 51% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Plymouth 68%, Stevenage 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Plymouth) and 39% (Stevenage).
On the defensive side: Stevenage in 34%; Stevenage in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Stevenage away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Stevenage?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 68% of Plymouth's recent matches and 42% of Stevenage's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Stevenage usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Plymouth's recent games and 39% of Stevenage's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Stevenage tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Stevenage in 51% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Stevenage 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Stevenage 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 38, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.56 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Stevenage landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 1.03 / defence 1.28 against Stevenage attack 0.84 / defence 1.08, drawn from 37/82 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 57%, Stevenage 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Plymouth's trading profile (82 games, 41 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Stevenage's trading profile (82 games, 41 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Plymouth 1.21 PPG, Stevenage 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Plymouth (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line. Stevenage (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.