Plymouth 1-0 Stevenage – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Plymouth at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Plymouth face Stevenage.

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Match Analysis

Plymouth host Stevenage at Home Park in League One (matchday 38). Kick-off is Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Plymouth have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Plymouth at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Stevenage — last 10 games: 6W 0D 4L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Stevenage away from home: 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Plymouth) versus 1.80 (Stevenage). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Plymouth's games and 60% of Stevenage's (from Plymouth's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Plymouth have won 0, Stevenage 0, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Jan 2026, ended Plymouth 1–1 Stevenage — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Plymouth in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; of the 32 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Stevenage in-play and half-time data (last 82 games, 41 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 51% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Plymouth 54% versus Stevenage 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Plymouth 57% | Stevenage 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.56 xG and Stevenage 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 1.028 / defence 1.281 | Stevenage attack 0.841 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.170. Plymouth's defence rating of 1.281 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Stevenage's projected output up. Data: built from Plymouth's last 37 games and Stevenage's last 82.

Result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 25% | Stevenage 31%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.25 | Draw 4.03 | Stevenage 3.25. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Plymouth as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Plymouth's last 10 home games and Stevenage's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Plymouth 60% (last 10 home games) | Stevenage 60% (last 10 away games).

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