Plymouth 1-1 Cambridge United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Plymouth at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Plymouth vs Cambridge United encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Cambridge United travel to Home Park to take on Plymouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Plymouth — All Games: 1W 0D 1L from 2 League One outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all League One games this season, Cambridge United have recorded 0W 1D 1L from 2 outings — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambridge United have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On current form, Plymouth have the edge — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.50) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.29 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.928 / defence 1.002 | Cambridge United attack 0.841 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.088. Cambridge United bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Plymouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Plymouth games / 2 Cambridge United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 26%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Cambridge United 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Plymouth are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Plymouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.21 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Cambridge United | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 44% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG Plymouth 1.29 / Cambridge United 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.928 / def 1.002 | Cambridge United attack 0.841 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Plymouth (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cambridge United xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Cambridge United kick off?
Plymouth vs Cambridge United kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Plymouth 1 - 1 Cambridge United.
Where is Plymouth vs Cambridge United being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Cambridge United part of?
Plymouth vs Cambridge United is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 44% chance of winning, Cambridge United a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Plymouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Plymouth and Cambridge United will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Cambridge United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cambridge United?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Cambridge United in?
Plymouth (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W. Cambridge United (all comps): 0W-1D-1L in 2 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Plymouth's attack rating (0.93) and Cambridge United's defence rating (1.25), the model arrives at 1.29 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambridge United's attack versus Plymouth's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Plymouth Win
44%
2.25
30%
3.36
26%
3.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.21
0.92
Cambridge United xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.87
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
28%
3.63
Win to Nil
18%
5.63
7%
14.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 10.1 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.0 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Cambridge United expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Plymouth and 0.92 for Cambridge United, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Cambridge United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Plymouth come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambridge United sit at 0.50 PPG from 2 outings (0W 1D 1L), a run that reads D-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambridge United, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Plymouth carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Cambridge United — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
The Goals Picture
Plymouth are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Cambridge United are on 1.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Cambridge United in 100%.
Defensively: Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Cambridge United
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Cambridge United in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while Cambridge United have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
Have Plymouth or Cambridge United been keeping clean sheets recently?
Plymouth have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Cambridge United in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Plymouth and Cambridge United runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Plymouth's record when hosting Cambridge United specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Plymouth
2
Draws
1
Cambridge United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Cambridge United?
From 4 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 1, Cambridge United have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Cambridge United last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2023, when Plymouth 3-1 Cambridge United.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Cambridge United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Cambridge United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Plymouth's recent matches and 100% of Cambridge United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Cambridge United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Plymouth's recent games and 50% of Cambridge United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Cambridge United tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cambridge United in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Plymouth and Cambridge United share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth and Cambridge United finished level at 1-1 at Home Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.29 xG and Cambridge United 0.92 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Cambridge United attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 44% | Draw 30% | Cambridge United 26%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 0%, Cambridge United 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Plymouth arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.