Portsmouth 1-0 Shrewsbury – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Portsmouth at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A League One encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Shrewsbury travel to Fratton Park to take on Portsmouth. The game is scheduled for Tuesday 17 August 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all League One games this season, Portsmouth have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 outings — a 3.00 PPG return. Last five: W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 2 games (100%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Portsmouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shrewsbury stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 League One matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. Their scoring rate of 0.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Shrewsbury have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Portsmouth are in the better shape of the two on current League One data — 3.00 PPG ahead (3.00 vs 0.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Portsmouth's 0% and Shrewsbury's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Portsmouth 1.49 xG and Shrewsbury 0.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Portsmouth attack 1.074 / defence 1.002 | Shrewsbury attack 0.702 / defence 1.248. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.088. Shrewsbury bring a strong defensive rating of 1.248 — this is suppressing Portsmouth's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 Portsmouth games / 2 Shrewsbury games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Portsmouth 54% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 19%. Fair-value odds: Portsmouth 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Shrewsbury 5.26. Portsmouth hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Portsmouth at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Portsmouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Fratton Park • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Portsmouth 54% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 42% | xG Portsmouth 1.49 / Shrewsbury 0.77 • Poisson strength factors: Portsmouth attack 1.074 / def 1.002 | Shrewsbury attack 0.702 / def 1.248 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Portsmouth (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Portsmouth xG
Expected Goals
0.77
Shrewsbury xG
42%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kick off?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Fratton Park.
What was the final score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth 1 - 0 Shrewsbury.
Where is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury being played?
The match is being played at Fratton Park.
What competition is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury part of?
Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our statistical model gives Portsmouth a 54% chance of winning, Shrewsbury a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Portsmouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Portsmouth and Shrewsbury will score (BTTS).
Will Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury in?
Portsmouth (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.00 | L5 W-W. Shrewsbury (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Portsmouth's attack at 1.07x the league average against Shrewsbury's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shrewsbury's attack versus Portsmouth's defence, projects 0.77 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Portsmouth Win
54%
1.85
27%
3.64
19%
5.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Portsmouth xG
Total xG
2.26
0.77
Shrewsbury xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
5.38
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.38
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
47%
2.15
22%
4.45
Win to Nil
25%
3.99
4%
23.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 8.0 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.9 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.9 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Portsmouth and 0.77 for Shrewsbury, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 2 outings, Portsmouth have picked up 3.00 PPG on a 2W 0D 0L record — W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Portsmouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Shrewsbury's form line: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, 0.00 PPG, last five L-L. It's still early in the season for Shrewsbury, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Portsmouth are the form team by 3.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Shrewsbury.
The Goals Picture
Portsmouth are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.00 conceded per game recently; Shrewsbury are on 0.00 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Portsmouth have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Shrewsbury in 0%.
Defensively: Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Portsmouth
Early Season
Shrewsbury
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Portsmouth and Shrewsbury in coming into this match?
Portsmouth have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Shrewsbury have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 (0.00 PPG).
Have Portsmouth or Shrewsbury been keeping clean sheets recently?
Portsmouth have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their recent games, Shrewsbury in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Portsmouth have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Dec 2023, when Portsmouth won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Portsmouth's record when hosting Shrewsbury specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Portsmouth
2
Draws
0
Shrewsbury
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
From 6 meetings on record, Portsmouth have won 4, Shrewsbury have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Portsmouth and Shrewsbury last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Portsmouth 3-1 Shrewsbury.
Who has won more matches between Portsmouth and Shrewsbury?
Portsmouth have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Portsmouth home games / Shrewsbury away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Portsmouth play Shrewsbury?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Portsmouth's recent matches and 0% of Shrewsbury's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Portsmouth vs Shrewsbury usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Portsmouth's recent games and 0% of Shrewsbury's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Portsmouth and Shrewsbury tend to score early?
Portsmouth have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Shrewsbury in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Portsmouth edge out Shrewsbury 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Portsmouth beat Shrewsbury 1-0 at Fratton Park, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Portsmouth 1.49 xG and Shrewsbury 0.77 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Portsmouth attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Shrewsbury attack 0.70 / defence 1.25, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Portsmouth 54% | Draw 27% | Shrewsbury 19%, with Portsmouth to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Portsmouth 0%, Shrewsbury 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Portsmouth arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.