Burton Albion 1-0 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Burton Albion at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Burton Albion vs Sunderland fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Pirelli Stadium plays host to Burton Albion versus Sunderland in League One, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Tuesday 17 August 2021 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Burton Albion's overall League One record this term: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games (3.00 PPG). Last five: W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 2 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Burton Albion have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sunderland (all games): 2W 0D 0L across 2 League One outings this term — 3.00 points per game. Last five: W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Sunderland have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 3.00 for Burton Albion, 3.00 for Sunderland — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Burton Albion 1.34 xG and Sunderland 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Burton Albion attack 1.074 / defence 1.141 | Sunderland attack 0.975 / defence 1.120. League average goals — home 1.112 / away 1.088. Data: 2 Burton Albion games / 2 Sunderland games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Burton Albion 39% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33%. Fair-value odds: Burton Albion 2.56 | Draw 3.57 | Sunderland 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Burton Albion at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Burton Albion if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.55 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Burton Albion vs Sunderland | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Pirelli Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 17 Aug 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Burton Albion 39% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Burton Albion 1.34 / Sunderland 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Burton Albion attack 1.074 / def 1.141 | Sunderland attack 0.975 / def 1.120 | league avg home 1.112 / away 1.088 • Poisson stance: Burton Albion (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Burton Albion xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Sunderland xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Burton Albion vs Sunderland kick off?
Burton Albion vs Sunderland kicked off at 19:45 on Tuesday 17 August 2021 at Pirelli Stadium.
What was the final score in Burton Albion vs Sunderland?
Burton Albion 1 - 0 Sunderland.
Where is Burton Albion vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at Pirelli Stadium.
What competition is Burton Albion vs Sunderland part of?
Burton Albion vs Sunderland is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Burton Albion vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Burton Albion a 39% chance of winning, Sunderland a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Burton Albion the favourite.
Will both teams score in Burton Albion vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Burton Albion and Sunderland will score (BTTS).
Will Burton Albion vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Sunderland?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Burton Albion and Sunderland in?
Burton Albion (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W. Sunderland (all comps): 2W-0D-0L in 2 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Burton Albion's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Sunderland's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.34. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.97x) against Burton Albion's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Burton Albion Win
39%
2.56
28%
3.58
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Burton Albion xG
Total xG
2.55
1.21
Sunderland xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
26%
3.81
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
9%
11.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 12.7 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Burton Albion vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Burton Albion and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Burton Albion and 1.21 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Burton Albion vs Sunderland?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Burton Albion come into this having played 2 games, going 2W 0D 0L for 3.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W. It's still early in the season for Burton Albion, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Sunderland sit at 3.00 PPG from 2 outings (2W 0D 0L), a run that reads W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Sunderland, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 3.00 PPG for Burton Albion against 3.00 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Burton Albion are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 2.00 scored and 1.00 conceded. Sunderland's attacking output running into Burton Albion's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Sunderland in 100%.
Defensively: Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 2 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Burton Albion
Early Season
Sunderland
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Burton Albion and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Burton Albion have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 games (3.00 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 0L in their last 2 (3.00 PPG).
Have Burton Albion or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Burton Albion have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Sunderland in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Burton Albion
1
Draws
0
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Burton Albion and Sunderland?
From 2 meetings on record, Burton Albion have won 1, Sunderland have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Burton Albion and Sunderland last play each other?
They last met on 22 February 2022, when Sunderland 1-1 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Burton Albion and Sunderland?
Burton Albion have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Burton Albion home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Burton Albion play Sunderland?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Burton Albion's games and 100% of Sunderland's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Burton Albion vs Sunderland usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Burton Albion's matches and 100% of Sunderland's.
Do Burton Albion and Sunderland tend to score early?
Burton Albion have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Sunderland in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Burton Albion edge out Sunderland 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Burton Albion beat Sunderland 1-0 at Pirelli Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Burton Albion 1.34 xG and Sunderland 1.21 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Burton Albion attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Sunderland attack 0.97 / defence 1.12, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Burton Albion 39% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 33%, with Burton Albion to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 75% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Burton Albion 50%, Sunderland 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Burton Albion 3.00 PPG, Sunderland 3.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Burton Albion win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.