Plymouth 1-0 Gillingham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Plymouth take on Gillingham.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gillingham make the trip to Home Park to face Plymouth in League One, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form
Plymouth (all games): 0W 0D 1L across 1 League One fixtures this term — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Plymouth have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Gillingham's overall League One record this term: 0W 1D 0L from 1 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Gillingham have played only a handful of League One games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On a straight form reading, Gillingham are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.00 vs 0.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Plymouth 1.00 xG and Gillingham 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Plymouth attack 0.982 / defence 1.150 | Gillingham attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 0.887 / away 1.181. Data: 1 Plymouth games / 1 Gillingham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 37% | Gillingham 35%. Fair-value odds: Plymouth 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Gillingham 2.86. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.15 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Plymouth vs Gillingham | Competition: League One, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Home Park • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Plymouth 27% | Draw 37% | Gillingham 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 47% | xG Plymouth 1.00 / Gillingham 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Plymouth attack 0.982 / def 1.150 | Gillingham attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 0.887 / away 1.181 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Plymouth xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Gillingham xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Plymouth vs Gillingham kick off?
Plymouth vs Gillingham kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Home Park.
What was the final score in Plymouth vs Gillingham?
Plymouth 1 - 0 Gillingham.
Where is Plymouth vs Gillingham being played?
The match is being played at Home Park.
What competition is Plymouth vs Gillingham part of?
Plymouth vs Gillingham is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the League One (England).
Who is favourite to win Plymouth vs Gillingham?
Our statistical model gives Plymouth a 27% chance of winning, Gillingham a 35% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Plymouth vs Gillingham?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Plymouth and Gillingham will score (BTTS).
Will Plymouth vs Gillingham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Gillingham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Plymouth and Gillingham in?
Plymouth (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L. Gillingham (all comps): 0W-1D-0L in 1 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Plymouth's attack at 0.98x the league average against Gillingham's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gillingham's attack (0.85x) against Plymouth's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.65
37%
2.67
35%
2.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Plymouth xG
Total xG
2.15
1.15
Gillingham xG
3.65
27%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.84
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
37%
2.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.56
13%
7.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Plymouth vs Gillingham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Plymouth and Gillingham expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Plymouth and 1.15 for Gillingham, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Plymouth vs Gillingham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Plymouth come into this having played 1 games, going 0W 0D 1L for 0.00 points per game. Their last five reads L. It's still early in the season for Plymouth, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Gillingham sit at 1.00 PPG from 1 outings (0W 1D 0L), a run that reads D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Gillingham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Gillingham carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Plymouth — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Attack vs Defence
Plymouth are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Gillingham are on 1.00 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Plymouth have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Gillingham in 100%.
Last 1 Results — League One
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Plymouth
Early Season
Gillingham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Plymouth and Gillingham in coming into this match?
Plymouth have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Gillingham have gone 0W 1D 0L in their last 1 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in League One. It has been a while since the last meeting — 19 February 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Plymouth
0
Draws
0
Gillingham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Plymouth and Gillingham?
From 2 meetings on record, Plymouth have won 2, Gillingham have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Plymouth and Gillingham last play each other?
They last met on 19 February 2022, when Gillingham 0-2 Plymouth.
Who has won more matches between Plymouth and Gillingham?
Plymouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Plymouth home games / Gillingham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Plymouth play Gillingham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Plymouth's recent matches and 100% of Gillingham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Plymouth vs Gillingham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Plymouth's recent games and 0% of Gillingham's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Plymouth and Gillingham tend to score early?
Plymouth have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Gillingham in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Plymouth defy the odds to beat Gillingham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Plymouth beat Gillingham 1-0 at Home Park, Regular Season - 2, in the League One. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Plymouth 1.00 xG and Gillingham 1.15 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Gillingham landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Plymouth attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Gillingham attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Plymouth 27% | Draw 37% | Gillingham 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Plymouth win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 0% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Plymouth 0%, Gillingham 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Gillingham arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.00. Form was overturned, with Plymouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Plymouth scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. Gillingham managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.