Peterborough 0-0 Mansfield Town – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Mansfield Town at 39% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Mansfield Town encounter.

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Full Analysis

Weston Homes Stadium plays host to Peterborough versus Mansfield Town in League One (matchday 40). Kick-off: Tuesday 28 April 2026 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Peterborough have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: D L L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

At home, Peterborough have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Mansfield Town (all games): 4W 5D 1L across their last 10 — 1.70 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Mansfield Town have gone 3W 5D 2L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

On a straight form reading, Mansfield Town are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Peterborough, 2 for Mansfield Town and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2026, ended Peterborough 2–1 Mansfield Town — a Peterborough win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Peterborough goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 44 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

Mansfield Town goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 90 games, 44 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 30 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 26 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Peterborough 64% and Mansfield Town 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Mansfield Town 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Peterborough surrender their half-time lead 25% of the time, while Mansfield Town have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.27 xG and Mansfield Town 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.264 / defence 1.150 | Mansfield Town attack 1.004 / defence 0.731. League average goals — home 1.372 / away 1.181. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.264 — their 1.27 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Mansfield Town bring a tight defence (rating 0.731, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Peterborough's projected output down. Data: built from Peterborough's last 90 games and Mansfield Town's last 90.

Result probabilities: Peterborough 35% | Draw 26% | Mansfield Town 39%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 2.88 | Draw 3.82 | Mansfield Town 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Mansfield Town at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Mansfield Town if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 80% (last 10 home games) | Mansfield Town 50% (last 10 away games).

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