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Poisson rates Stockport County at 57% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Stockport County vs AFC Wimbledon encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a League One clash, Regular Season - 40 as Stockport County welcome AFC Wimbledon to Edgeley Park. Kick-off is set for Saturday 28 March 2026 at 15:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all League One games this season, Stockport County have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Stockport County have posted 6W 2D 2L at Edgeley Park — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Stockport County are significantly better at Edgeley Park than their overall form suggests.

AFC Wimbledon — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 League One fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.

AFC Wimbledon's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in League One this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Stockport County) versus 1.50 (AFC Wimbledon). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Stockport County register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, AFC Wimbledon in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Stockport County, 1 for AFC Wimbledon and 0 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Stockport County winning.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Stockport County in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).

AFC Wimbledon in-play tendencies (85 games, 42 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Stockport County 58% versus AFC Wimbledon 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Stockport County 48% | AFC Wimbledon 39%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Stockport County 2.09 xG and AFC Wimbledon 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Stockport County attack 1.107 / defence 1.083 | AFC Wimbledon attack 1.005 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.420 / away 1.151. AFC Wimbledon bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Stockport County's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 83 Stockport County games / 38 AFC Wimbledon games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Stockport County 57% | Draw 21% | AFC Wimbledon 22%. Fair-value odds: Stockport County 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | AFC Wimbledon 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Stockport County (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.34. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.34 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Stockport County at 57% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 3.34 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Stockport County 80% | AFC Wimbledon 60% BTTS from recent games.

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