Peterborough 1-1 Burton Albion – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Peterborough at 53% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Peterborough vs Burton Albion encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Peterborough and Burton Albion meet at Weston Homes Stadium in League One (matchday 44). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time.
Form
Peterborough (all games): 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Peterborough's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Peterborough are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burton Albion have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W L D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
When travelling, Burton Albion have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Burton Albion are 0.50 PPG clear of Peterborough over their recent games (1.20 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record in our data favours Peterborough, who have won 4 of the 7 H2H matches we hold against Burton Albion — Burton Albion have 1 win, with 2 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 18 Oct 2025, ended Peterborough 1–0 Burton Albion — a Peterborough win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Peterborough and goals — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Peterborough — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 43 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 84% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 28 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Burton Albion — key trading statistics (last 88 games, 43 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 46%; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Peterborough 64% versus Burton Albion 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Peterborough 60% | Burton Albion 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Peterborough 1.73 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Peterborough attack 1.300 / defence 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 0.781 / defence 0.959. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.176. Peterborough carry an above-average attack rating of 1.300 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Burton Albion's attack rating of 0.781 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.05. Data: built from Peterborough's last 88 games and Burton Albion's last 89.
Result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%. Fair-value odds: Peterborough 1.88 | Draw 4.21 | Burton Albion 4.33. Peterborough hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Peterborough at 53% — moderate model lean. The head-to-head data (Peterborough 4 wins from 7 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Note a divergence: in-form Burton Albion (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Peterborough if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.78 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Peterborough's last 10 home games and Burton Albion's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Peterborough 70% (last 10 home games) | Burton Albion 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Peterborough vs Burton Albion | Competition: League One, matchday 44 | Venue: Weston Homes Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 19 April 2026 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Peterborough 1.73 / Burton Albion 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Peterborough attack 1.300 / def 1.149 | Burton Albion attack 0.781 / def 0.959 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Peterborough (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
Peterborough xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Burton Albion xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Peterborough vs Burton Albion FAQs
What time does Peterborough vs Burton Albion kick off?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Sunday 19 April 2026 at Weston Homes Stadium.
What was the final score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Peterborough 1 - 1 Burton Albion.
Where is Peterborough vs Burton Albion being played?
The match is being played at Weston Homes Stadium.
What competition is Peterborough vs Burton Albion part of?
Peterborough vs Burton Albion is a League One fixture (matchday 44) (England).
Who is favourite to win Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our statistical model gives Peterborough a 53% chance of winning, Burton Albion a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Peterborough the favourite.
Will both teams score in Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Peterborough and Burton Albion will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Peterborough vs Burton Albion have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Peterborough's attack rating (1.30) and Burton Albion's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.73 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Burton Albion's attack (0.78x) against Peterborough's defence (1.15x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Peterborough's last 88 games and Burton Albion's last 89 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Peterborough Win
53%
1.88
24%
4.21
23%
4.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
Peterborough xG
Total xG
2.78
1.05
Burton Albion xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
4.33
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
19%
5.40
4%
24.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.7 | 11.3 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Peterborough vs Burton Albion Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Peterborough and Burton Albion expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for Peterborough and 1.05 for Burton Albion, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Peterborough vs Burton Albion?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 88 outings, Peterborough have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 28W 18D 42L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Burton Albion's form line: 24W 26D 38L from 88 games, 1.11 PPG, last five W-L-D-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Peterborough against 1.11 for Burton Albion. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Peterborough have posted 1.37 PPG from their last 43 home games (16W 11D 16L).
On the road, Burton Albion have gone 9W 15D 19L from their last 43 away games — 0.98 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Peterborough are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Burton Albion are on 1.06 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Peterborough have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 88 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Peterborough
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
Peterborough (Home) vs Burton Albion (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Peterborough
Current Season
Burton Albion
Current Season
❓ Peterborough vs Burton Albion Form FAQs
What form are Peterborough and Burton Albion in coming into this match?
Peterborough have gone 28W 18D 42L in their last 88 games (1.16 PPG), while Burton Albion have gone 24W 26D 38L in their last 88 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Peterborough at home or Burton Albion away?
Peterborough's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Peterborough at home: 1.37 PPG; Burton Albion away: 0.98 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 9 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in League One. The most recent was as recently as 17 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Peterborough won Peterborough 4-0 Burton Albion on 25 Nov 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Peterborough have gone 1W 3D 1L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burton Albion — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Peterborough
4
Draws
1
Burton Albion
Recent Meetings
❓ Peterborough vs Burton Albion H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Peterborough have won 4, Burton Albion have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Peterborough and Burton Albion last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 17 October 2026: Peterborough 2-2 Burton Albion.
Who has won more matches between Peterborough and Burton Albion?
Peterborough have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Peterborough are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Burton Albion see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Peterborough 60%, Burton Albion 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Peterborough) and 44% (Burton Albion).
On the defensive side: Burton Albion in 30%; Peterborough have failed to score in 26% of games; Burton Albion in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Peterborough home games / Burton Albion away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Peterborough vs Burton Albion Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Peterborough and Burton Albion matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Peterborough's recent matches and 46% of Burton Albion's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Peterborough and Burton Albion matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Peterborough's recent games and 44% of Burton Albion's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Peterborough and Burton Albion matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 84% of Peterborough's recent matches and 58% of Burton Albion's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Peterborough and Burton Albion share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Weston Homes Stadium, Regular Season - 44, as Peterborough and Burton Albion drew 1-1 in the League One. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Peterborough 1.73 xG and Burton Albion 1.05 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Peterborough attack 1.30 / defence 1.15 against Burton Albion attack 0.78 / defence 0.96, drawn from 88/89 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Peterborough 53% | Draw 24% | Burton Albion 23%, with Peterborough to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Peterborough 60%, Burton Albion 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Peterborough's trading profile (88 games, 43 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Burton Albion's trading profile (88 games, 43 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Peterborough 1.16 PPG, Burton Albion 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More League One fixtures — matchday 44
All League One fixtures →
More UK football predictions →