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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Plymouth edge out Northampton 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Plymouth beat Northampton 2-3 at Sixfields Stadium, Regular Season - 46, in the League One. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Northampton 0.82 xG and Plymouth 2.14 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Northampton beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Plymouth outscored their 2.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Northampton attack 0.69 / defence 1.32 against Plymouth attack 1.38 / defence 0.87, drawn from 91/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Northampton 13% | Draw 19% | Plymouth 68%, with Plymouth to win its most likely call at 68%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Northampton 47%, Plymouth 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Northampton's trading profile (91 games, 45 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Plymouth's trading profile (91 games, 45 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Northampton 0.95 PPG, Plymouth 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Plymouth win broke the near-deadlock. Northampton (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Plymouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights